Compare, say, how they’d feel about cutting corners when building a new college dormitory and a new hospital, in a known active earthquake zone, versus building components that will become part of a fission plant.

Excerpt follows from:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=7312752
“… among the buildings that crumbled or have been designated uninhabitable by the quake are a university dormitory and a hospital, both of which were built after seismic standards had been raised.

Firefighters picking through the rubble of some buildings told state TV Friday night that some of the reinforced concrete pillars they had removed seemed to have been made poorly, possibly with sand. They said that rescuers using saws or other instruments usually split the pillars cleanly. But in some buildings in L’Aquila, the pillars crumbled into dust, indicating that a lot of sand might have been mixed into the cement, they said.
——-end excerpt——

There’s just something fundamentally cattywampus about human risk perception for construction/profitability of longterm infrastructure that needs study.

Re: AP1000 costs, it will be interesting to see the numbers that come out of the first two AP1000s being constructed in China right now. As Tom has pointed out, the increase in costs, if they are real, do not reflect materials or labour, and so will stem from other externalities that may not be applicable in countries with a different regulatory system to the US.

Yes but modern turbines generate far more for less materials as they increase in size. If Peterson did his study on 600kW turbines, which was the average size then, then this would skew the result as a 600kw has much less output per unit construction material than the 3MW ones that are in production today. Also most modern turbines are variable speed which uses less material than the constant speed turbines that were dominant then.

“Outliers? The two ABWRs were the first two Gen III reactors ever built. The newer designs (AP-1000 and ESBWR) are even simpler and use even less material than the ABWR.”

OK – however you cannot provide a breakdown for the costs for these reactors. You also have not provided any data to substantiate your claim that newer reactors with streamlined approval and building codes will be cheaper. I have provided figures that show there has been a 50% increase in nuclear costs including the AP-1000.

Yes you could base your costings on the cheapest reactors you can find however imagine that you were in the position to build these reactors. Would you go to the financiers with the cheapest costs from 2004 and ask for 2 billion for your reactor? Or would you average the latest costs for reactors built everywhere and come up with a figure of 6 billion?

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/03/03/xcel_yucca/

Reviving the question – is it possible to build the GenIV fuel reprocessing facility independent of the existence of a GenIV reactor, and start moving the backlog of older reactor fuel through it? Or does that simply raise all the problems of transport of waste, and storage of concentrated fissionables, in the absence of a GenIV reactor to take the output?

The costs savings due to the experience of an implemented project (including real-world feedback given to designers) is discussed on the OECD document I linked to above. Most of the savings come from construction schedule reductions.

For example, in Korea the 1048 MWe (each) ULCHIN-5 and ULCHIN-6 reactors, were connected in 2003 and 2005 respectively, not much more than four years after the start of construction.

Similar experience may be found in Japan at the 1100 MWe HIGASHI DORI-1 (2005 connection; 4 years, 4 months construction), and the 1267 MWe HAMAOKA-5 (2004 connection; 3 years, 9 months construction).

Source: http://www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/

Wind increased 30%? Capacity factors when Peterson did his study were at least 21%. Today the average is no more than 25%, if that (I think I read recently that average is 23%). As for construction materials cost increases, as Ronald correctly pointed out above they are inconsequential for nuclear. 70s-era plants could buy their construction materials today for about $35/kw, and the newer designs like the PRISM will use substantially less material yet.

You also cannot base your cost projections on outlyers. The two Japanese reactors that came in at $1400/kW were atypical and cannot be used for estimating costs in 2008 onward for any reactor.

Outliers? The two ABWRs were the first two Gen III reactors ever built. The newer designs (AP-1000 and ESBWR) are even simpler and use even less material than the ABWR. But since those two reactors are the only ones that represent Gen III that are actually built and operating, it would be pretty ridiculous to NOT cite them and claim that it can’t be done again at that price. (Please don’t tell me about the EPR in Finland, that’s a case of AREVA building an already-obsolete Gen III reactor, and not doing it well to boot). In fact, GE claims that with what they learned building them they figure they could build new ones now for about $1200/kW. Since commodities cost increases of nuclear are immaterial and interest costs are at record lows, while labor costs have (alas) not risen, these would seem to be the best examples of what nuclear power should cost, not outliers to be ignored.

OK fair enough – I do not want to provoke another round of Ender fatigue – we will see how it goes if it gets built.

Ondrech – “This is total non-sequitur. Temperature of turbine determines thermal efficiency. ”

OK I accept your correction. As I have admitted I am a layperson in this topic and learning is a part of why I post.

This is total non-sequitur. Temperature of turbine determines thermal efficiency. A steam turbine coupled to a 520C HX of a LMFBR such as IFR has obviously higher thermal efficiency than one coupled to 320C steam generators of a PWR.

Pressure of a reactor primary circuit is determined by nature of coolant. LMFBRs operate at ambient pressure because liquid metal coolant does not need any pressurizing, in contrast to PWRs.

Concerning the costs and schedule, given the fact that the major cost and schedule over-runs were either caused by legal action of antinuclear industry, or the first-of-a-kind issues (or both), the cost and 4year build schedule of Japanese plants is indicative of N+1 plant ones, once the regulatory framework and the construction practices are streamlined.

Regarding quality assurance, I agree, but I think you’re trying to tell GEH how to suck eggs.

In what way were the Japanese ABWR prices atypical?

These are real figures from the World Nuclear Association about the real costs of nuclear.

Actually, most are cost projections. Why are the OECD and EC figures (including 2010 cost projections), and other figures the World Nuclear Org and Tom cites, using data for many countries and giving a range of 4-5.5 c/KWh, not real?

The EU 2007 study they cite gives the following figures:
Nuclear = 5.5 – 7.4
Coal = 4.7 – 6.1
Gas = 4.6 – 6.1
Wind onshore = 4.7 – 14.8
Wind offshore = 8.2 – 20.2

I am not claiming anything. These are real figures from the World Nuclear Association about the real costs of nuclear. Sure the increase in material prices hit the wind industry however obviously it did not hit it hard enough to dent the rampant growth. Nuclear uses some very specialised components that are not used anywhere else. Its steels have to withstand intense radiation and heat. Also the welds and joins have to be of a much higher standard because of the relative dangers of a leak or failure. If a wind turbine fails there is no risk of radiation leak etc so all its welds are subject to normal commercial standards and it’s component materials are not subject the same temperature and radiation regime as a nuclear reactor. It is the certified materials, welds and join inspections that push up the price of nuclear. The S-PRISM is not immune to this as it has to be inspected and certified. It is also subject to much higher neutron flux than normal thermal reactors and higher temperatures. As you know you never get anything for nothing so if you operate your reactor at ambient pressure you have to increase the temperature to retain thermal efficiency.

You also cannot base your cost projections on outlyers. The two Japanese reactors that came in at $1400/kW were atypical and cannot be used for estimating costs in 2008 onward for any reactor. The cost savings of the S-PRISM design have yet to be proven so you need to estimate costs on the basis of current reactors. The IFR has a bath of liquid sodium that must be kept from any contaminant. This is not an area where you want to apply cost cutting in weld or join quality. How long do you think the the IFR program would last in the face of a sodium explosion? So everything about the IFR core MUST be of the highest possible standard or you are risking disaster for the whole IFR program. This is where I think you will have the most problems with mass production and savings from modularity and again where I dispute Tom’s rollout schedule.

My layperson’s guess for estimating the IFR cost is a standard normal curve centered over $3000.00/kW. This puts Tom’s figures (that I have seen here) of $1500/kW in what I think is the right probability range.

http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/te_1390_web.pdf

http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/6600031E.PDF

[Thanks Ed, 3rd time lucky -- you need to use the a href= style to get the links to work here when embedded]

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