Comments on: Open Thread 1

By: william

william — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 12:54:39 +0000

nuclear fusion for a humanity free of that debilitating cancer called EARTH. the sooner we leave the better………

By: Gordon

Gordon — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 21:48:40 +0000

Amplification of Global Warming by Carbon-Cycle Feedback Significantly Less Than Thought, Study Suggests

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100127134721.htm

By: Matt Buckels

Matt Buckels — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 07:44:09 +0000

Good to see climate opponents teaming up to spread some Christmas cheer:
http://elfyourself.jibjab.com/view/GRX6esy9BCBh4hAP

highlights are Barry and Plimer decorating the tree, and watch for Monckton’s camp entrance from the left in the last scene!

Merry Christmas all.

By: Ms.Perps

Ms.Perps — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 06:42:04 +0000

This seems the most appropriate thread to wish Barry and everyone on the blog a very merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Enjoy yourselves with friends and family or in happy solitude- eat, drink (but not too much) and above all be merry and forget about AGW for a few days.
It has been great, this year,interacting with (almost) all of you and learning so much, from so many interesting and knowledgeable people. Thankyou!

By: Barry Brook

Barry Brook — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 05:43:29 +0000

Yes, exactly Gordon, that clause is utterly insane and intellectually bereft. Who are they to say what is “nationally appropriate”. Strewth, it’s no wonder the whole process was a schmemozzle.

By: Gordon

Gordon — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 05:21:13 +0000

According to a recent report from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change:

Page 83, section 50 states: [Nationally appropriate mitigation actions shall not include technologies that have adverse impacts on the environment, including, inter alia, nuclear power and large-scale hydro-electric power.]

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/awglca7/eng/inf02.pdf

No wonder China doesn’t want to play!

By: David B. Benson

David B. Benson — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 22:59:26 +0000

I recently read a statement to the effect that a combined cycle gas turbine costs up to US$200 million. GE’s H frame is rated at 400 MW. Can I really buy one, installed, for as little as the claimed price?

By: Gordon

Gordon — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:57:45 +0000

Barry: It’s interesting that James hints that Solar activity may have been the cause of the LIA:

Indeed, it is likely that the sun is an important factor in climate variability. Figure 4
shows data on solar irradiance for the period of satellite measurements. We are presently in the
deepest most prolonged solar minimum in the period of satellite data. It is uncertain whether the
solar irradiance will rebound soon into a more-or-less normal solar cycle – or whether it might
remain at a low level for decades, analogous to the Maunder Minimum, a period of few sunspots
that may have been a principal cause of the Little Ice Age.

This suggests to me that at least in James’ mind, the science isn’t settled.

By: Barry Brook

Barry Brook — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:33:08 +0000

Must read this:

The Temperature of Science
James Hansen

My experience with global temperature data over 30 years provides insight about how the science and its public perception have changed. In the late 1970s I became curious about well known analyses of global temperature change published by climatologist J. Murray Mitchell: why were his estimates for large-scale temperature change restricted to northern latitudes? As a planetary scientist, it seemed to me there were enough data points in the Southern Hemisphere to allow useful estimates both for that hemisphere and for the global average. So I requested a tape of meteorological station data from Roy Jenne of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who obtained the data from records of the World Meteorological Organization, and I made my own analysis.

Fast forward to December 2009, when I gave a talk at the Progressive Forum in Houston Texas. The organizers there felt it necessary that I have a police escort between my hotel and the forum where I spoke. Days earlier bloggers reported that I was probably the hacker who broke into East Anglia computers and stole e-mails. Their rationale: I was not implicated in any of the pirated e-mails, so I must have eliminated incriminating messages before releasing the hacked emails.

The next day another popular blog concluded that I deserved capital punishment. Web chatter on this topic, including indignation that I was coming to Texas, led to a police escort. How did we devolve to this state? Any useful lessons? Is there still interesting science in analyses of surface temperature change? Why spend time on it, if other groups are also doing it? First I describe the current monthly updates of global surface temperature at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Then I show graphs illustrating…

Read the whole piece here:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2009/20091216_TemperatureOfScience.pdf

By: John Newlands

John Newlands — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:46:57 +0000

‘We’re hot stuff on climate change – Rann’ says the SA Premier speaking from Copenhagen. Some factoids on South Australia
- desalinated water will cost nearly $3 per 1000L
- in heatwaves wind power generates ~10% of capacity
- the State’s coal and gas reserves are well past their prime
….but
- the State may have up to a third of the world’s easily mined uranium.

So I guess SA and Denmark have a lot in common; they talk a lot about renewable energy but in practice are heavily dependent on fossil fuels and electricity imports.

By: Gordon

Gordon — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 10:39:41 +0000

First the US
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6781982/Deadly-storm-sweeps-across-America.html

now Canada
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/13/2770207.htm?section=world

and later this week the UK
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/UK-Weather-Forecasters-Cold-Spell-Warning-Puts-Gritters-On-Alert-Across-The-Country/Article/200912215498789?lpos=UK_News_First_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_4&lid=ARTICLE_15498789_UK_Weather%3A_Forecasters_Cold_Spell_Warning_Puts_Gritters_On_Alert_Across_The_Country

Who’s going to be the first and shout “The Day after Tomorrow” :-)

By: Hank Roberts

Hank Roberts — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:34:11 +0000

Cautionary:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL041282.shtml
El Niño stills winter winds across the southern Canadian Prairies

Analysis of long-term terrestrial wind speed (u) records demonstrates that interannual variability is a major component of near-surface wind dynamics in the southern Canadian Prairies (SCP). Since the early 1950s, there have been several periods when negative anomalies in regional u persisted for 8 to 13 consecutive months, with anomalies for individual months exceeding −1 m s−1. Calm conditions on the SCP usually coincided with negative u anomalies across much of western Canada, and nearly all low-wind events occurred during a ‘moderate’ or ‘stronger’ El Niño. Wind energy facilities in the SCP have been built during a period of relatively stable wind conditions, and the next El Niño may test their ability to maintain expected energy outputs. El Niño may affect u in other parts of the North American wind corridor and be useful for predicting seasonal or interannual changes in regional wind energy production.

Citation: St. George, S., and S. A. Wolfe (2009), El Niño stills winter winds across the southern Canadian Prairies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23806, doi:10.1029/2009GL041282.

By: John Newlands

John Newlands — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 01:46:13 +0000

David B I live in Tasmania now but I used to visit relatives in four different towns out that way. My reading is that people out that way want big things to happen but they want it done right. That area is the nearest coastline to the world’s largest low grade uranium deposits. Nearby was where the Brits detonated A bombs just after WW2. It would be bizarre to produce electricity and fresh water mainly using the fossil fuel powered grid which is already under severe strain not to mention the slight problem of carbon cuts. Yet that is what the politicians want.

By: David B. Benson

David B. Benson — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 00:36:22 +0000

John Newlands, on December 11th, 2009 at 13.28 — I had in mind quite a bit west of Spencer Bay, but yoou certainly know the area better than I.

It would help considerably to have some local enthusiasm for just a pilot project…

By: Lawrence

Lawrence — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:29:04 +0000

re Peter Lang’s comment:
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/27/open-thread-1/#comment-39065
You said
“I’d suggest that if the cost of electricity increases…”
vs
“The best thing the west could do to help the poor would be to develop low-cost, clean electricity.”
Perhaps the problem is the the absence/presence of the adjective “clean”.
I guess you mean we can’t get to clean without going through fossil.
Does the Hansen plan minimise the time this takes?

By: Lawrence

Lawrence — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 07:37:21 +0000

re Peter Lang’s comment:
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/27/open-thread-1/#comment-39065
How does this square with James Hansen’s notion of cap and dividend, which would increase the cost of fossil fuels? Is Hansen’s proposal ok because of net cost?

By: John Newlands

John Newlands — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:58:32 +0000

David B
I see the advantages of the desert coast as
1) large heat gradients
2) distance from nimbies.
If as a result of new transmission other energy developments become economic then that is a bonus.

On heat gradients along the Nullarbour coast while air temperatures on land may be over 40C subsurface sea temperatures close to shore may be consistently close to 20C. It just so happens that there are several major industries near that area, headed by the expanded Olympic Dam. On nimbies that also includes open sea fishermen who want shallow bays undisturbed for fish breeding areas.
http://www.topix.com/au/port-lincoln/2009/12/seafood-industries-fight-desal-plan

By: David B. Benson

David B. Benson — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:51:32 +0000

Robert Smart, on December 10th, 2009 at 12.50 — That is a good question! In effect, the biiomethane competes head-on with natgas. I estimate that the algae farm just breaks even with natgas at close to US$5 per MMBTU. Just now the spot price in the US for natgas is US$4.3+. So it might (or might not) currently compete, but as a form of farming, might receive some incentives or tax breaks to enable continued operation.

Incidently, the closed cycle operation would produce about 5 million liters of hot, fresh water per year, which ought to be worth something, even if not much.

What I propose is building a pilot algae farm, on say 500 hectares of arid land, not far from the ocean but with a nearby point source of CO2. CSIRO has speced out on possiblity (emphasizing biodiesel, not my plan); follow
http://www.csiro.au/resources/Greenhouse-Sequestration-Algae.html
There is also a report from Auburn Univeristy.

By: Marion Brook

Marion Brook — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:03:06 +0000

I believe nuclear powered France manages to deliver electricity at or below to the cost delivered by coal powered nations (such as Australia)… how do they do it?

I only had time for a quick search but heres a cost comparison between a number of countries for industrial electricity prices.

http://www.business.nsw.gov.au/PDF/infrastructure-D13_industrial_electricity_costs.pdf

By: Robert Smart

Robert Smart — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 20:43:01 +0000

I doubt if a carbon price can be made to work worldwide. Plan B is to build carbon free energy as a Gift to the Future. There’s even a web site: http://gifttothefuture.org. Not much else though.