Jim Hansen despises cap and trade because he is well aware of the round robin and pork barreling that goes on in Washington and isn’t too far off in terms of the rest of the world.

He doesn’t trust politicians for a second and neither should any of us in terms of them staying the course for a long period of time as they will cheat and pork barrel.

My understanding is that Jim would favor a carbon tax with income set offs, or at least that’s what he has said one time. He also makes a strong case or nuclear energy. Jim is right on all counts.

The ETS is an abomination as far as I’m concerned. It’s another form of a big government boon doggle.

The real policy should zero emissions and the objective should also be huge amounts of energy supply. Only nuke does that.

I do not involve myself in the peak oil debate for the same reasons.

Logic dictates however that even in the unlikely case that AGW and peak oil are not real concerns at the moment, it is clear that we cannot continue along the current path without both of them becoming factors down the line. Which is one of the reasons I push for nuclear energy.

As for the rest of your rant, it simply shows that you no longer have anything of pertinent to say on this matter and have been reduced to making petty personal attacks. To me this just indicates you are beaten, and behaving like an asshole because of it.

NPPs are not seen by either of you as an answer to AGW but as preferable to fossil fuels for other and antecedent reasons. In your case as retired US military this will include the usefulness of atomic weapons as threat projection to assert US overlordship since 1945.

Hence I think that for you to attempt vainly to patronise me once more on the topic of science/engineering when it suits your lifelong predilection to help project US power by military nuclear means is to say the least dubious in view of your own rejection of the findings of empirical climate science (see your blog statements on 29.11).

You spent, as you say, your career in the nuclear-related military service of the US state. The aim was to secure it access to raw materials and markets by violence or threat thereof (see Thomas Friedman’s famous statement on the mailed fist that is needed for Nike and Coke to thrive internationally). You appear to be drawing its pension. Hence I would advise extreme caution in the use of the fashionable smear word “ideology” against your opponents. As if all the Presidents you served under had none…. Are you not “the light on the hill?” People in glass houses…

It is sobering that two strong pro-nukes on this blog, Rogers and DV82XL, are thus both AGW deniers/disclaimers: strange blog bedfellows for anti-AGW pro-nukes, indeed.

@Barry Brook: you state that I do not believe in tech solutions to environmental crises. I suppose I could quote Lovelock ( I assume you respect him as a scientist?) , for whom there are no solutions any longer bar the UK battening down in the face of AGW. But I am not sure about Lovelock, who I take it is an NPP man because of believing that all renewables are a German re-run of the 1939 plot, and he is an English patriot.

But leaving Lovelock aside, I assume that you think I think that Man should not e.g. have invented fire using carbon-based wood, or cleared western Europe of first-growth forest by ca. 1700 for wood-based housing as further protection against the heat/cold (= crisis).

Incorrect. However, the tech solution to AGW propounded on this blog seems to fluctuate from day to day: some bloggers (Blees) now complain about Germany wanting to switch off Gen II NPPs, after they (Blees) have written books lauding only Gen IV; you yourself wrote in this blog that Gen III is fine by you for SA.

Jim Greene’s support of my quotations of Blees’ concern in his book to internationalise and socialise NPPs (the GREAT concept) was met with resounding silence on this blog some days ago. Strange, given Blees’ status on this blog. Thus you and others are de facto leaving the development of NPPs to national malfeasant bureacracies(France) and private sector (Japan, USA) firms in collusion with their local regulators. Such firms (see my blog entry about RWE today) have Big Coal in their product ranges. This led blogger Finrod to say today that we need a popular and not corporation-driven movement to bring about Newclear. Now, how would this happen? Is it possible?

Figures showing lower deaths 1945 to date from civilian NPP accidents (ex Chernobyl, even assuming the Greenpeace data are mendacious and hence not countable, which I do not) than from fossil fuel usage would not seem relevant as leading indicators of the size of the potential damage done to humanity by the extension of nuclear (Gens III-IV) electricity to all those wanting it. This is because the post 1945 accident-prone culture of regulatory secrecy and collusion, detailed inter alia by Blees in his book for the USA, should not be allowed to spread. But I am aware that e.g. DV82XL is quite happy with clandestine atomic waste transports in Canada: he has said so on this blog. Another blogger is envious of China being able to ram through NPPs without opposition, as it is a one-party state.

But what sort of concept of democracy does this imply? Could it be that pro-nukes are much more concerned with energy-intensive consumption? and have no problem with detention camps/tasering/death penalty for the opposition? The Chinese model, as it were?

The view on this blog that one need only unplug Big Carbon and plug in Newclear (and boron, according to Blees) as part of scaling up NPPs of Gen III and IV overlooks the question: is the nature of the current crisis such that it is soluble merely by swapping one source of power for another? That is, what dangers to humanity are AGW-driven and which are not? For example: are metals/minerals finite/infinite, irrespective of whether they are processed using nuclear or fossil power (see recent New Scientist article)? Why is mental illness empirically rising along with affluence? This latter problem cannot be wished away by allegations that hairshirt Greenies want to return to anti-growth Calvinism.

My impression is that the pro-nukes are 1. neoliberal to Keynesian, Bush to “Bushbama” 2. are blind to their own political assumptions on which they rest their engineering calculations, taking them as givens 3. adherents to the economic growth faith, undermined long since by e.g. Herman Daly, ex World Bank; and the New Economics Foundation people.

If anyone knows about mental disorder it would be you Steve.

Note to Barry: this commenter has a history of posting long disruptive and pointless rants about television taking over peoples brains and other such relevant topics. He has already been thrown from several forums for his behavior. Just so that you know.

What mental disorder describes those among us who proclaim themselves Masters of the Universe doing the work of God?

Years of hard work by people with feet of clay all come down to this week. The “now or never” week is at hand for the children, global biodiversity, life as we know it, the integrity of Earth and its environs. This week is the moment that the Masters of the Universe cannot avoid any longer; all of human family are bound in this long-awaited momentous week. The time for action has come, finally. The opportunity held in this blessed moment must not be missed.

If anyone thinks of something that I can do to assist any of you to reasonably, sensibly, responsibly and humanely realize the goals of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, please send word to me.

Steve Salmony
Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Ms. Perps, having read some of your fiery defenses of BNC in the past, I am very much inclined to stay on your good side! ;o) I accept your praise gratefully in hopes that I can stay in your good graces.

Mr. Russell, as much as I wish it were otherwise, the aviation analogy is DV82XL’s… not mine.

Peter Lalor: BNC is now a huge and mature blog, I don’t know how much
you have read, but I’d suggest looking at its history. Barry’s views have
changed enormously in the few years I’ve known him and he really is
one of the few people to go where the evidence leads.

“Magisterially” – produced by or characteristic of a teacher, scholar, or expert; showing great dignity and authority.

(DV82XL – rest assured, your command of the English language is outstanding, as is your mastery of the topic at hand.)

This however, was unfortunate… “Concluding, the impression of this blog based on the English used in it is that it is visited mainly by men of engineering/hard science background with no self-doubt as regards risk issues (eg NPP safety) and a hands-on, can-do attitude, which may or may not be calibrated to the risks addressed.”

Dang! You were so close! Next time try… “Concluding, the impression of this blog, based on the English used in it, is that it is visited (and hosted) mainly by men of engineering/hard science background. Having conducted a thorough and dispassionate review of both the technical and historical record, they have arrived at an informed understanding as regards risk issues (eg not just of NPP safety, but of the alternatives as well). Departing from the distressing and counter-productive norm of impenetrable ideology, they exhibit a hands-on, can-do attitude, following wherever the facts may lead in order to accurately calibrate the risks involved.”

Mr. Lalor, you represent that “self-doubt” is a virtue that the visitors to this site lack… I beg to differ. While I believe that “self-doubt” is a necessary spur to compel an honest man to proper humility, and is well suited to the process of personal introspection and development, it is misapplied to the task of analysing scientific/engineering data. I suggest that some questions are susceptible to being answered to the complete satisfaction of an impartial mind.. without resort to arrogance, or allegiance, or blind faith. However, these questions (such as NPP risk analysis) are the province of simple, informational “doubt” (no “self” required)… that is easily resolved through education. “Self-doubt” comes later when one must ask the more difficult question of whether one has the strength of character to embrace the product of that education in spite of previously held, and often long cherished, beliefs.

The truth is that this site is replete with evidence that its visitors (and host) have wrestled quite earnestly with the “self-doubt” you claim they lack… the diligence with which they seek unbiased information, the passion with which they disseminate what they have found, and their willingness to get involved is all the proof you need. Here is an example of the kind of questions that lend themselves to a proper application of “self-doubt” to highlight what I mean…

1 – Am I taking the peril of the energy/environmental crisis seriously enough?

2 – Do I have a responsibility to understand these issues, and if so, am I applying myself diligently enough to the task?

3 – Am I working for solutions or advancing an ideology?

4 – Am I capable of changing my mind, even if it puts me in an uncomfortable, unpopular, and/or unfamiliar place, if that’s where the facts lead?

5 – What contribution can I make?

If you detect a high order of self-assurance in the statements you see here, it is because they are a wholesome combination of factual accuracy and clear ethical purpose… liberally and conscientiously filtered through the lens of “self-doubt”. But after all, the question of a viable post-fossil energy paradigm is a scientific/engineering problem requiring scientific/engineering solutions… you are quite fortunate to have found such an outstanding resource “visited mainly by men of engineering/hard science background”… may it serve to resolve some of your “doubts”. As to your “self-doubt”, that’s your path alone, but you’d be wise not to confuse the two… it would bring the wrong tool to the job!

This is known as “if the problem is a nail, you better be damn sure you bring a hammer”… put down the monkey wrench, Peter… these are not partisan issues.

“you write in one of your magisterially unsourced statements:”

My statements in the comment in question are unsourced because they are clearly presented as opinion. It is my understanding that as such it required no formal reference. As for ‘magisterial’, yes I know my language is a bit florid, unfortunately I lack sufficient command English to be confident enough to use it with the same understated and nuanced ease that a native speaker does, and still be confident I am making myself understood.

“Now I think we would both agree with James Hansen writing in NYT just now: cap and trade is a Wall St. -driven emissions trading scam.”

“I have a severe problem, …, with your idea of fossil fuel lobbyists having bribed all Copenhagen attendees, if that is what you are saying.”

Well I don’t care who is paying them off, I suspect some smaller nations are going to be compensated for tacitly supporting the Chinese coal-burning juggernaut which to me amounts to the same thing as having Peabody cutting them a check. The bottom line is that special interests will prevail.

The rest of your items are the usual litany of antinuclear shibboleths that have been addressed over and over, however one more time we will go through it again.

“1. unresolved nuclear waste disposal problem for NPPs of Gens II and III,”

There are no unresolved issue over nuclear waste. There are several options that allow this material to be reprocessed or isolated from the environment that are proven safe and effective. Transportation casks have been established as unbreachable by any accident that my befall them, and the material in them generally doesn’t represent any value such that it would be interdicted for some other purpose.

Circuses that attend the movement of nuclear material are solely the responsibility of antinuclear forces wishing to make a show and terrorize the public for their own ends. In Canada, by policy the schedule and itinerary of these movements are not made public and only the public safety apparatus in the various communities along the route are informed. They are not expected to be a presence as the shipment passes through their bailiwick. We have never had any problems.

“2. NPP safety issues of personnel training, materials quality and workmanship being maladministered”

Again a tempest in a teapot being whipped up by those with an agenda against nuclear. I ask you, how many dead, how many serious accidents, or failure has this sector suffered? And how many can be traced to the reasons you stated?

The safety record of the nuclear sector is one of the better ones in any industry. I know from personal experience just how much trouble is taken in commercial aviation to avoid incidents yet that activity has killed more people due to the reasons you stated than nuclear ever has, yet no one in their right mind calls for an end to flying.

“3. current refusal of the atomic powers to countenance any challenge to their power to threaten and coerce by promoting civilian nuclear energy among potential victims, because those victims, cf. Iran, can undertake enrichment”

To the extent I understand what this means, I strongly doubt that this is anything more than manufactured concern that has the oder of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning about it. I may be interpreting this wrong however, and I will respond to any clarification you might make.

“I do not think your side helps its case by airbrushing Three Mile Island and other incidents;..”

No incident, including TMI need be airbrushed; the facts are such that these events were nowhere near the long-term disasters they were predicted to be. This can be seen in the raw mortality and cancer incident data available, particularly in the case of TMI. Were there any real concerns, it would not require the sort of statistical massaging I see to show a ghost of trends that anyways falls inside the error bars.

“…WHO and IAEO working together by charter means that UN NPP health data are questionable per se, see objections raised by IPPNW.”

That is a rather bold, and potentially libelous statement, given that it is made without any supporting evidence. I am not going to wade through the IPPNW website looking for it. If you or the IPPNW has evidence of collusion and maleficence between these entities I will address it, when I am shown it. Without it this is just a hollow accusation and is irrelevant to the subject at hand.

“Now I have read your statements in this blog that Military and Civilian are entirely separate …[is] there is a nuclear engineering skills crossover? Or do you have another explanation of India having been cut off from Civilian tech….Are you saying it was only because it tested a bomb in 1974?”

The degree of overlap is less than one would expect. The critical skills to create a device are very different and the skills needed to make the leap between a crew-served test setup, and a deliverable weapon are even greater.

India was cut off after the Smiling Buddha shot because it had violated several technology transfer agreements it had signed with various countries. For example when Canada sold them the CIRUS reactor they categorically promised that they would not use the plant to breed weapons-grade material, when it was found out they had Canada cut off nuclear trade with them. This latter cascaded into a full blown stop of nuclear trade because of provisions in the regulations of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

“Incidentally, why is India now allowed Civilian since 2008?”

Because they have become a Player on the international stage, and have the weight to get what they want now. No one is going to cut themselves out of access to a huge developing market, or push it into the hands of your competitors. There is more at stake here than just nuclear issues.

“Concluding,…US and UK dominance at all times.”

Statements like these are beneath notice, I won’t grant them any legitimacy by responding to them.

Where on earth did you pull that clanger from?

“The case for nuclear energy is not only sound, but crystal-clear to anyone that is apprised of the facts. It is just not possible that every single person in every government responsible for the energy portfolio for their nation is not aware of this. Consequently the only possible reason for nuclear energy not being high on the agenda at this, or any other high-level meeting ostensibly about finding a solution to the climate forcing issue, is that the participants have been bought and paid for. No other explanation is possible.”

Now I think we would both agree with James Hansen writing in NYT just now: cap and trade is a Wall St. -driven emissions trading scam.

However, denialists allege that AGW climate science is an international multi-decade conspiracy involving tens of thousands of public service university climatologists who have managed to conspire successfully all this time.

And this conspiracy is prima facie unlikely and ridiculous, as you will agree. But I have a severe problem, for reasons of logistics and disclosure, with your idea of fossil fuel lobbyists having bribed all Copenhagen attendees, if that is what you are saying.

“Other explanations” for NPPs not being on the table at Copenhagen will not to be to your liking as a metallurgist and presumed uranium proponent on account of its energy density. They are: 1. unresolved nuclear waste disposal problem for NPPs of Gens II and III, e.g. the Castor transports from La Hague to Gorleben in Germany, which tie up thousands of police from all over Germany year after year . This disposal problem is a justifiable concern for politicans looking to be reelected and the public servants they direct. 2. NPP safety issues of personnel training, materials quality and workmanship being maladministered either by national supervisors of private-sector NPP operators in collusion with the latter (eg USA or Germany) or as part of bureauacratic malfeasance (France) 3. current refusal of the atomic powers to countenance any challenge to their power to threaten and coerce by promoting civilian nuclear energy among potential victims, because those victims, cf. Iran, can undertake enrichment.

Concerning safety issues, I do not think your side helps its case by airbrushing Three Mile Island and other incidents; WHO and IAEO working together by charter means that UN NPP health data are questionable per se, see objections raised by IPPNW. Your side alleges either that Chernobyl is an out of date design and thus irrelevant

Now I have read your statements in this blog that Military and Civilian are entirely separate and that it is very hard to make a bomb having stolen material from the Civilians. Hence you state that proliferation from Civilian to Military does not exist.. However, it it not the case that just as a light plane pilot is closer to flying a Jumbo than is a sailor, there is a nuclear engineering skills crossover? Or do you have another explanation of India having been cut off from Civilian tech. when it refused in 1968 to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty? Are you saying it was only because it tested a bomb in 1974 ?

Incidentally, why is India now allowed Civilian since 2008? Is it not aimed at allowing it to develop as a Western ally against China, from its current 4,0000 MW to the forecast 470,000 MW by 2050?

Concluding, the impression of this blog based on the English used in it is that it is visited mainly by men of engineering/hard science background with no self-doubt as regards risk issues (eg NPP safety) and a hands-on, can-do attitude, which may or may not be calibrated to the risks addressed. They are by default loyal to US and UK dominance at all times.

This is known as “if you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

Don’t be a fool. That was a primitive culture that didn’t have options. We do have options to stop the problem in its tracks, if certain people would get out of the way. And that option is nuclear energy.

Just a thought :)