It would be very interesting to see a visual rendering that illustrates the minimum migration speed required for species to stay in a stable climate – and where such migration will be impossible due to continental geography (e.g. there’s nowhere to migrate to south of Australia).

I just wanted to ask about something.
You wrote: “<2°C below pre-industrial levels, given a climate sensitivity in the range of 2 — 4.5°C, humanity’s cumulative carbon budget between now and ‘forever’ (the next 100,000 years or so), is 1 trillion tonnes of carbon. We’ve burned 500 billion tonnes of fossil carbon and forests already, and on our current trajectory, we’ll break the global carbon bank within the next two to three decades.

I'm a bit dubious that our glorious leaders will pull off any agreement at Copenhagen.

So what happens if we just keep making excuses and keep burning the oil, gas, and coal and yet peak coal turns out to be a reality hitting around 2025? (German Energy Watch Group).

I'm wondering if 2 effects would take over:
* The economic shock would see coal prices skyrocketting and compelling coal-importing nations to take a long hard look at their coal imports and balance of payments.
* The cultural shock that these fossil fuels were actually *finite after all* would take over, and a major new 'war-time' effort would be easier for politicians to sell to the public.

These are not excuses: they are how I have been keeping myself sane as I watch all the hot air coming out of Copenhagen.

THEN there's some very interesting claims that biochar could see us running an ENORMOUS co2 sink, which effectively negates our impact on the climate if ramped up to process the world's agriwaste and plantation forestry waste into biochar & syngas.

Just a few points that give me some hope in the face of political recalcitrance in Cop.

http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/29/ifr-fad-1/
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/27/the-nuclear-economy/

(In short, it’s being promoted so well elsewhere I’m focusing on other matters).

—referred from a post on RealClimate linked to here for “nukees”

I wasn’t focusing my post on Australia. The problem is getting a world solution so I was looking at what woudl eb a rational way of getting that. I suspect if you calculated the CO2 share we should be emitting in a just solution, we would be so far over now that Australia would be one of the tariffed countries until we lowered our CO2 quite a bit. Same with the USA. Perhaps the political solution is for Europe and Japan to tariff countries like us until we get serious with real action.

I would agree that insecurity about our coal exports is driving our compromised position. We should realise that in the short to medium term Australia will still be exporting coal to India and China anyway, and find a way to stop domestic brown coal use. Since we don’t even have nuclear power or grid links to Victoria on the drawing board, I conclude Australia has no serious intention of reducing domestic CO2 emissions in the next ten years.

I suggest that Australia should export yellowcake on the basis that it displaces CO2 emissions. That is, uranium is instead of not additional to coal or LNG. This could have considerable leverage around 2015 when it is believed China’s coal production will peak. India already needs hard coals for its steel industry with Australia not Indonesia the nearest supplier. In terms of electricity I believe it takes 1kg of black coal to generate a kilowatt hour, about .7 kg of LNG and about .02 grams of enriched uranium. That puts enriched uranium about 50,000 times ahead of coal if I am using the right numbers. Even more compared to coal with CCS. The deal should be take a cut in coal or LNG and get uranium instead.

I’m saying that Australia not only has the moral obligation to lead in carbon cutting but also has the physical means to greatly influence global emissions.

Thanks for the summary, depressing but accurate as always. The more I have read about Copenhagen the less optimistic I am about the ETS. It seems fundamentally flawed in both consideration of equity and whether it can be self-enforcing in game-theoretic terms.

Kyoto established a mechanism to transfer money from rich offending nations (in CC terms) to poor vulnerable nations. The trouble is, not all rich nations are equally responsible, while not all poor nations are vulnerable. Indonesia, China and India are now large parts of the problem. I think the economists based the Kyoto style ETS more on “ability to pay” than willingness, need or desert. hence now it is becoming unenforceable.

I think the only solution now is to establish emission quotas for each nation based on sustainable totals, use a carbon cap and tax to get action within cooperating nations, and tariff goods from non-cooperating nations. This will encourage everyone to act. Developing nations with low emissions won’t have to act, but won’t get a large handout of cash either. Some percentage of carbon tax funds should be pooled though, to assist those who need to mitigate effects (eg Bangladesh, Maldives). There also need to be funding for international programs ot reduce population growth.

I think one problem now is that some poeple have spent so long working on Kyoto that they can’t let go if it, when it has clearly failed. After 12 years we have actually gotten worse, while adding another billion mouths to feed. I don’t think we are going to avoid severe harm from CC now.

Really? Which ones? What did they say?

“My suggestion is that we do not grant these e-mail too much legitimacy by continuing to acknowledge there existence.”

Are actually a reverse denialism of a situation you wish didn’t exist. Most of the emails are benign but others suggest some scientists may have exaggerated warming trends. As such it is negative publicity for climate scientists and casts doubt on the sincerity of the profession on the whole.

The public seems to have embraced the idea of AGW and these ‘revelations’ don’t seem to be undermining that belief in any serious way as yet. The idea seems to be well entrenched in the public’s mind at this point, and it will take more than evidence of academic bickering at (what is for most people) an obscure school in Britain to shake it.

My suggestion is that we do not grant these e-mail too much legitimacy by continuing to acknowledge there existence.

(climategate = denier overreach)

Unfortunately right now the signs point to a retreat into denial and delusion. We’ll tell ourselves a few patches of scrub saved from the bulldozers have sucked up vast amounts of CO2. We’ll look at some minuscule alternative power source and tell ourselves coal is on the way out. So far the public is buying it. A tough year may achieve more than Copenhagen ever could.

What else do you call people who send you “death threats”? Fucking psychopaths, that’s what. “Ad hominen” … are you insane?

Recall the USGS emails that caused such a stir for the Yucca Mountain nuclear repository project? The DOE took the issue seriously and , IIRC, about $25M of what amounted to quality assurance remediation was performed. I think it was the right thing to do. It solved the problem.

I think the CRU email issue should also be taken seriously. It has affected public opinion. A loss of public confidence in the data would be the same thing as a loss of the data. A disaster. A casual response like trying to restore the authority of the CRU by appealing to it’s authority won’t work. Dismissive ad hominem (e.g., calling people “social psychopaths”) won’t work either. However, IMHO, a serious IV&V response would fix things. And I believe the MET Office is going to try and do just that.

George