David, one of the feature of modern life is that we can take it or leave it as we wish. As individuals. However that power does not extend to making that decision for every one else. And certainly it is hubris in the extreme to assume that it can be made by us for generations to come.

Now I understand where you are coming from, because I’m not much younger than you seem to be, but my children do not have the same memories, or the same wish to go back to that time, any more than I wished to go back to the time of my dad, waking up at five in the morning on a school day to split stove wood so breakfast could be made. I’m sure that this did his health and attitude all sorts of good, but I also note he had an electric range installed in his own homes when the time came.

Most don’t want a low energy lifestyle, particularly those in the Third World who ‘enjoy’ one now. Nor are they going to listen to any decadent Westerners waxing romantic about their lost youth. In the real world, growth will continue whether we approve or not, and the only things we can effect are how much damage to the planet we can avoid while it happens.

This is the choice before us.

It is said that all politics is local; dunno ’bout that as an absolute; but maybe life quality is all individual. When I was a kid (1940′s into the 50’s), a typical commute was a 3-mile drive. My older brother and I liked skiing; we had to climb up hills (fishboning & sidestepping), but that gave us time to talk about the forthcoming downhill. We liked to sail (Lightning #309); we cruised the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, sleeping under the cockpit awning, the boat pulled well above the reach of the waves if the weather was rough (launching out again was a bit of a challenge in the surf). We dreamed of tropical islands (trade winds and bosomy lasses, no priority implied), but we had at least as much fun as adults who high-style it up & away to Phuket.

Decades later, my wife & I enjoyed six-figure ($ not £) incomes (largely derived from the Telecom boom). Nice travel, art collection, etc and education for the kids in designer-label schools. We had high energy lifestyles, both metabolism and fossil fuel. Now we have spectacularly downsized our living, but we are enjoying it much all the same. (Particularly catching up on our reading.) The incomes have shrunken spectacularly, the waistlines have grown more than we’d like, but our quality of life has neither improved nor suffered. We go to church, lectures, concerts, and I still enjoy long-distance bicycling (my wife, of Latin American middle class upbringing, cannot get into that kind of thing; innappropriate for a lady). True, we’re lucky to be healthy, and so far feel no wish to channel Dr Kevorkian, but we wonder about how much better we might be if we had not allowed ourselves to be caught up in the mania of that age, when hi-tech was booming and our bellies were flat.

Calculus, modern physics, symphonic music, baroque painting, the Enlightenment, the Reformation, world exploration… these spectacular glories of civilization developed on a low (fuel) energy environment. Yeah, I know, it didn’t extend to everybody, and I prefer life of today, but there are good examples to be followed as well as bad examples to be avoided.

However, I agree with Peter McClelland that the only way to a civilization which does not depend on the high-speed conversion of resources into waste would all to likely involve all-too-frequent visits by the Four Horsemen. (Thanks for that line; I will use it shamelessly, giving him no credit whatsoever.)

“I think you are both a lot more complacent than I”

Hardly :). For a while now I have been busy preparing for what I see as likely steps down in our affluence, mainly energy and food availability. Perhaps you are too.

“Instead, I see the UK sailing into the cliched, perfect storm”

Certainly our situation is perilous, but I wonder whether it’s really so much worse than most other comparable places (Germany, Japan, USA, …). Yes, we’ve been slow to recognise and act on energy issues. During our domestic fossil fuel glut we became addicts. Decisions to replace that infrastructure have been woefully delayed due to slow recognition of the problems and official uncertainly about the right way to proceed. Added to this our population density has continued to grow to bursting point, and we have become enthralled by the lure of easy wealth through playing games with money.

However, we remain a relatively cohesive, flexible and well educated society, with a strong continuing skills base and large financial resources. Leadership and a sense of urgency are the key missing ingredients. Nonetheless, I remain optimistic that we will see better leadership in the near future, perhaps arising from unexpected directions.

Also, it’s a little narrow to consider Britain in isolation. Our partners in the EU can provide strength through diversity. With a continued strong internal market and some strategic alignment of our collective energy infrastructure we will be better able to cope with the coming challenges, despite the political shortcomings of the UK and EU as a whole.

My main concern for the UK is food security if a combination of geopolitics and resource crunches start to bite over the next couple of decades. I’m less worried about energy because I am fairly sure that we can squeeze massively more utility from each kWh than we do at present. We also have significant natural energy resources waiting for us to have the drive and skill to exploit them efficiently and cleanly (wind, tide, solar, perhaps also coal). Prof MacKay rehearses some of this. Huge reductions in flying, commuting, house heating and pleasure driving; mandatory efficiency standards and removal of standby for electrical devices; steep increases in VAT for high energy appliances; mandatory pre-cycling; etc. I foresee huge discontent initially, as people cannot afford to heat their houses to tropical levels and drive several miles to pick up a sunday paper as thick as a telephone directory. But we’ve historically been a pragmatic lot and I suspect we would settle down to feel somewhat less affluent, somewhat happier, and generally not feel that much had been lost.

As a more general observation, the comments on this site which deprecate a future with lower energy consumption look rather similar in nature to the push-back by AGW ‘sceptics’ when confronted with the need to change. We have reached current levels of consumption through a complex balance between energy availability and marginal internal cost of supply, almost entirely ignoring external costs. Nowhere is it written that this is somehow a necessary and perfect state. We can and should reduce our energy footprints so that we get much more value from each unit expended. Aggressively expanding supply will lead to just as many imbalances as we see in today’s world, with potentially worse consequences as the margins of our increasingly fragile world become ever more stressed.

That said, there seems to be little doubt that if industrial civilisation is to be preserved then we need a large contribution from nuclear power. Although I agree with David Collins that high energy consumption is not a necessary condition for civilisation, at this stage we can’t quickly back out of the industrial part of it without frequent visits from the four horsemen.

I am in favour of R&D into renewable technologies, funded initially with private capital and, subsequently, with public money if the technology in question looks promising. I am not in favour of subsidies to some clean energy producers and none to others.

I have read all I can conveniently get my hands on that relates to high altitude wind and, of course, am aware of Kitegen. The capacity factor you refer to in the jetstreams above temperate latitudes is as you suggest. I’m not sure that this applies to altitudes at which most high altitude wind systems are planning to operate. Furthermore, power from high altitude wind farms operating at full throttle will be less than for an equivalent swept area of low level farm due to lower air density. I remain sceptical but await announcements relating to progress with interest.

don`t you think there should be more research in advanced wind plants/ high altitude wind?

There are jetstreams in GB. We are looking at a CF of 60-85%

The Kitegen Stem was developed with some millions.

Thanks for your kind comment.

I suppose it is wrong to suggest we currently have developing nation status. It is the speed that we are approaching it that worries me. If we can’t get our energy policy right, given our existing indebtedness, we could go down the tubes very, very quickly.

I am not entirely clear what you mean by “indebtedness bonds”. Clearly, banks, out of effective regulatory control, ran up enormous debts and were bailed out with phoney money printed by the government, the housing bubble burst causing a disappearance of notional money. Furthermore, the government has increased the size of its client base by massive recruitment of manpower into jobs which don’t contribute to the productive economy and, in fact, tend to sap the profit potential of the private sector. For the first time ever, central and local government spending is more than 50% of GDP.

The UK does have plenty of coal reserves but, after the miners’ strike and North Sea discoveries of oil and gas (now mostly gone), we left most of the coal in situ. In fact, I think our coal power plants use a lot of imported Polish coal. Recently, there has been an increase in interest in exploiting underground coal gasification, especially as we have large offshore reserves. There are those who claim that this technology will marry well with CCS.

For interest, our energy regulator, Ofgem has just reported on an onshore wind study. Average capacity factor is put at 25-30%. However, significant numbers of even recently built wind farms are operating at below 20%. Concern was expressed that levels of subsidy were such as to be tempting developers to build on unsuitable sites. However, many of the best wind sites are often not favourably placed with respect to the grid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

Although on my single visit to the UK, I didn’t think much of the fruit
and veg, except when curried … thank god for Indian restaurants.

I’m curious about a couple of things. I thought coal had largely
gone in the UK, you make it sound still substantial, and secondly
who is holding the “indebtedness bonds”? Is it public or private
debt and for what and to whom?

you wrote:
http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/03/19/britains-energy-future/#comment-50744

Thank you for the references to your blog.

Concerning growthist cornucopiaism, how do you or Soylent or other growthists suggest we restore redfin tuna stocks other than by foreswearing sushi and leaving the fish alone? Talks on this failed a couple of days back. Or do you envisage human ingenuity re-engineering this species for re-release? When Canada overfished cod around 1990, the stocks never recovered. In terms of plastics engineering, the ocean seems to be thermoset rather than thermoplastic, as it were.

Concering your misleading statement about the Green Revolution, which is water- and chemical-intensive and ruinous for Indian farmers, refer to:

http://www.zcommunications.org/water-wisdom-by-vandana-shiva

It is noteworthy that BNC seems to have no people on it outside corporate USA or its various Anglo vassals, but such people, like Shiva, are at the sharp end of US Treasury – World Bank activities such as the Green Revolution.

1. Deloittes, the most optimistic out of a range of commentators, is predicitng an annual 6-8% growth in UK manufacturing for the next decade. http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/cig/09stats/prospects.html

2. Sheffield Forgemasters has received the funding to build the press for large componets of Gen III plants. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8992921.

I always thought the problem in the Uk was the oldfashioned outlook of mercantilism otherwise known as neo-liberal economics

You raise some interesting points on the weaknesses of the current western democratic process.

I read today that a MORI poll, conducted in the UK, revealed that only 24% of the public saw any need for government to cut spending, despite debt levels exceeding 12% of GDP and equivalent to those of Greece.

I have toyed with one idea. Money has been assumed to be so important that the Labour Government, on attaining power in 1997, made the Bank of England independent with the role of maintaining inflation close to 2%. This was generally an applauded by all political parties. Unfortunately, the government concurrently removed the Central Bank’s regulatory role and created a separate entity for this purpose. It was the signal failure of the latter that can be blamed, more than the banks, for our current financial crisis. In consequence, the Conservatives are planning to repatriate the powers of bank regulation to the Bank of England while continuing to respect its independence.

I see the management of the supply of affordable energy to be at least of equal importance to the supply of money. I would therefore advocate the creation of an independent Organisation of Energy Transition, free from political apointees, performing in a manner equivalent to the independent Bank of England. I believe the idea has the potential to take party politics out of the energy debate but haven’t thought it through properly. Would, for example, such an organisation have fund raising as well as fund distributing powers? If so, could it influence the level of funding it deemed necessary to implement its plans? Would it be responsible for justifying its decisions directly to the public? What is the optimum way of recruiting its personnel? (I would suggest they be appointed by appropriate professional and/or scientific academic bodies.)

The concept that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is not a problem may be very popular, but I can’t see how it can be defended. This view appears to be saying AGW has zero effect. If this were the case, we on earth can as much CO2 as we like with impunity. How can we be so sure that it is safe to do so, especially when scientists are saying there is a great likelihood of dangerous and then catastrophic climate change?

Hundreds of people have been looking for the slightest discrepancies and they have found some anomalies and some statement to quote that can be construed as conspiracy. I would have thought this result should be expected in any case. Others think this is sufficient reason to live as if the earth were infinite.

At least C Monkton acknowledged that AGW has an effect and that it was a question of sensitivity of the system to CO2 increase. From memory I think he concluded there was a third of the effect published by the IPCC.

To say AGW has no effect requires another explanation for why the atmosphere is warmer near the earth’s surface. The whole concept of greenhouse gasses would need to be revised.

I must have skimmed through too quickly as I did not find your name in the top or bottom of the post. I guess I must have seemed like I was saying, “Who does this guy think he is?” This was not my intention at all and was rather lax of me; I think this is an excellent post.

Your points 12 and 13 of the political considerations are very important. We can’t have a worthwhile democratic process without an informed electorate. I agree that political parties are in the business of telling people what they want to hear. Currently politics in democratic countries are not focussed on identifying and addressing the most pressing issues first. The system of voting for representatives at roughly regular intervals supports only a short-term approach to managing issues and addressing these at a popular level.

The big question in my mind is how to get people informed before they vote. I want to know how the issues raised by the AGW and anti-nuclear critics can be addressed so that people can make informed decisions? If we attempted to have an independent body study the issues and come up with definitive answers, we would be left in the end with another appeal to authority. Scientists have to learn how to communicate with the general population. Everybody should know, for example, that CO2 levers up water vapour before they can go any further. Ian Plimer, for example, evidently does not understand such a basic point. He should be required to demonstrate his understanding of this concept, or to argue that the concept is mistaken. The most responsible thing governments could do currently would be to identify global issues and to educate their citizens about them. Each government should have a department for public education on global issues. Opponents, however, would want to merely dismiss this as propaganda, but at least more people would be aware of what the issues are.

I feel that using the Internet has the greatest potential for engagement so that people can learn and become informed. There needs to be a popular movement towards a system of informed decision making.

Regarding point 14, the planet needs to go on a war footing, not just the UK. The issues in the UK seemed to be paralleled elsewhere in the western world. There needs to be a popular movement outside of state boundaries. This is where the Internet has the greatest potential. The first point of attack needs to be against misinformation and empty reasoning. There needs to be research done on how a paradigm shift can be achieved. There has to be strategic planning to bring about global consensus towards sustainability.

As Bill Kerr said above there is a great need for real debate. This is not a matter of debating rules and timed sessions, but of addressing the concerns of other opinions. It is always difficult to determine the level of content. Just as most training sessions on computer software are either too basic to learn anything or too advanced to follow, so information on issues needs to be presented on a range of levels.

I also think we need some lateral thinking on democracy. It is not so much about choosing a person to represent voters, but voters making decisions on issues that they are informed about.