At this point in time there have only been 14 peer reviewed papers that weigh costs and benefits and they lead to a conclusion that we should do little. However if somebody wants to do a multi disiplinary review of costs and benefits and subject it to peer review then you won’t see me objecting. However we can’t draw conclusions from papers that don’t exist.

We gain nothing by assigning unrealistic precision to economic models projecting 40 or 90 years out. Even with near perfect climate forecasting (which is nothing like the case in reality) it still would be a nonsense to give too much credence to this stuff. But no doubt such studies would echo around the denialsphere, and serve a political purpose.

Despite years of warnings about derivative mountains, especially of the over the counter variety, and soaring private debt levels, did economics (as a whole) successfully predict the GFC? Now try 50 years ahead.

The best we can do is to draw inferences from the physical and biological sciences.

We are talking of a very different type of risk from ordinary economic or investment risk. In these cases, people (hopefully) learn from their errors and move on, possibly with somewhat fewer dollars.

There is no confidence whatsoever that what humans are doing to climate can be reversed out. It is a risk that cannot be hedged in any meaningful way. What’s more the upper bound on the risk is huge. it is the kind of risk that should make any self respecting risk manager shiver.

If you noticed I’ve posted about the new study in Nature about the 40% decline in phytoplankton. This could very likely have extremely serious consequences. But to put a meaningful $ cost on those consequences is just plain impossible. And this is illustrative of the general problem. So much is unknown that risk cannot reasonably be capped.

“So with all the uncontrollable heating-up that is taking place all over the planet – how is this winter shaping up, temperature wise, in Australia?
Can anyone enlighten me?”

A good place to check weather and climate data for Australia is at the Bureau of Meteorology website (www.bom.gov.au). You can check weather and climate trends there, such as national climate summaries. Perhaps that is what you are looking for?

For example, the national monthly climate summary for June (the start of this winter – naturally the July summary is not available yet) can be found here (via the menus):

Bureau Home > Climate > The Recent Climate > Regular statements

It starts with:

“Nationally averaged temperatures were slightly above normal. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were 0.25°C above the long-term average, ranking 25th and 30th highest on record respectively.”

Of course monthly weather fluctuations on a regional scale are not a true indicator of long term global trends.

Does that help?

Andrew

Perhaps I might recommend this book to you by Frank Ackerman, a senior economist at the Stockholm Environment Institute: -

“Priceless: On Knowing the Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing”

http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/330/7499/1091

Well, I have some personal real life costs and benefits evidence for you.

My home retail electricity rate is now 18 cents per kWh, I am receiving electricity from a 100% renewable supply utility called Ecopower cvba, and this since 2006, day and night.

My previous utility called Electrabel invoiced me the same rate, while using an 100% imported nuke + FF energy mix to produce it’s electrons. Therefore ‘cheap’ nuke power isn’t translated into cheaper home retail rates to me, since I pay the same rate for a 100% renewable energy mix.

Of course, today, Electrabel also provides an alternative choice in the form of also 100% renewable sourced electricity supply, but they charges 5% more than their regular nuke + FF power plant mix for the privilege of using that sort of fuel.

My utility Ecopower cvba sources its fuels from 52% biomass (CHP using locally grown switch grass or wood pellets shipped from Belgium, Austria, Ukraine, Scandinavia, Canada, USA) and biofuels (locally grown vegetable oil producing crops, oil burned in ICE power generators), 2% from run-of-river hydro power, 38% from wind turbines, 6% from solar PV parks and a few small scale biogas digester powering gas turbines supplying the rest.

And the cheapest power plant is the one you do not build. Even 13 cents per kWh new western NPP’s cannot compete with that assumption.

About some existing real cost and benefits papers evidence :

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/07/energy-efficiency-twice-the-impact-of-renewables-nuclear-clean-coal-combined.php?campaign=weekly_nl

Energy Efficiency : Twice the Impact of Renewables, Nuclear and Clean Coal. Combined.
“The International Energy Agency estimates that energy efficiency will deliver 65 per cent of worldwide carbon cuts in the energy sector by 2020, and 54 per cent by 2030. This means that in 2020 energy efficiency could have almost twice the impact of renewable energy, nuclear power and clean coal combined.”
They cite, for example, one company who has discovered they can save so much energy at one plant that it would equal to powering 100 000 homes. And that’s but one business. The report notes that “just 220 companies, mainly in manufacturing, mining, and construction, use more than 40 per cent of the energy consumed in Australia.” As the Sydney Morning Herald points out this is “almost twice as much power as all households combined.”
The Jevons Paradox (search vimeo for a great video on it) unfortunately undoes the benefits of energy efficiency by making energy cheaper and thus promotes greater usage. Efficiency is important but it won’t get us where we need to go. We need to cut down usage and the only way that’ll happen is by increasing the price of energy.
Energy efficiency doesn’t make expanded generation and distribution unnecessary, it just delays it a few years, unless you intend to reduce the standard of living and stop population growth. Letting prices rise to fund expanded energy supply is in fact the best encouragement for energy efficiency. Requiring pollution sources to pay for the demonstrable effects of the pollution is another tool for correctly pricing energy, and therefore energy efficiency. Even absent a carbon price, this can be very significant, as chemical pollutants like Mercury are quite toxic.

http://biomassdigest.net/blog/2010/07/16/the-busy-persons-guide-to-a-20-percent-renewable-power-standard/

The busy person’s guide to a 20 percent Renewable Power Standard. To meet the 2050 global carbon goals and provide power for a world population growing in numbers and affluence, a 20 percent RPS is a minimal standard, no more or less than a material first step. The United States generates about 4000 terawatts of power per year. We produce about 10 percent of our needs today from renewables. In a 20 percent scenario, we’ll need 10 more – or 400 terawatts. Hydro and geothermal have development limits, solar is a beautiful infant, nuclear takes forever, and there’s only so much wind that can be built at one time. In a five-year, near term scenario, we’d be darn lucky to add 11 terawatts from all those sources. Even so, we’d be doubling the capacity of that entire sector. What’s left? Biomass. Whether you think of it as the “friendly fuel” or the “scourge of mankind”, its infrastructure and capital light. Co-firing or conversion, its the near-term technology that’s available. Usually, we burn wood when we burn biomass, but wood takes quite a while to grow, and the near-term play is in energy grasses. Since you get about 1000 kilowatt hours per ton of switchgrass, you need 250 million tons to produce the extra 250 terawatts of power from new generation. That uses up about 30 million acres, at 8 tons an acre. Switchgrass will cost 10 cents per kWh on a good day. Coal costs around 5 cents per kWh. Doesn’t sound like much, but it adds up quickly. The differential is around $15 billion. That can be absorbed in the form of tax, or rate increases. Throw in a few pennies for the impact of other new renewables generation, and we look at $20 billion per year in added cost, excluding the capital cost of new generation from wind, solar and geo. That’s about $200 per household per year, $4 per week, or about 60 cents per day. That’s the kind of metric that can really cheese off an annoyed electorate, fed up with government spending. But look at it another way. Hurricane Katrina caused $125 billion in total damages. And anyone who thinks that global warming will cause less economic impact than Katrina hasn’t been looking at the numbers. Global warming skeptic : Still sounds like an affordable hedge, with a pay-off in lower rates down the line, should all the carbon chat turn to nothing and tons more coal fuel resources be uncovered. Capacity builds can be tough asks for investors and financiers, but they always, always pay off for the end-user.

“If economists can’t weigh the costs and benefits for the purposes of making judgements about public policy then what makes you think some other group of experts can”

A multifaceted research approach makes most sense, drawing from disciplines such as the physical sciences, biology, sociology and economics. The IPCC comes closest to this, and their conclusion is (more or less) that urgent action needs to be taken.

I’m unsure why you think economics is the sole best indicator for policy approach. Many biologists are suggesting the ecological costs from unabated climate change will be dire. As this post mentioned, above 3 degrees of warming could lead to up to 50% of species going extinct. That’s far from a worst case scenario temperature increase – it’s roughly a middle point for IPCC projection ranges by 2100, and even close to the upper range of projections by 2050.

I’ll emphasise this again – we (as a civilisation and as individuals) rely on these ecosystems to function and survive. Innovation might get us so far, but 50% of species going extinct in a world of 9+ billion people would very probably yield intolerably high casualties.

I’m sorry to say that I think that is just a whole lot of nonsense. What possible credence can be placed on economic models projecting 40 or 90 years into the future? You are demanding public policy be built on a house of cards and a world built on some sort of technocracy ruled by economists. Unfortunately economics is riddled with ideological biases. No thanks.

If economists can’t weigh the costs and benefits for the purposes of making judgements about public policy then what makes you think some other group of experts can. And if we don’t put the costs and benefits on a scale and test the virtue of a given course of action then anything is permitted. We may as well do stupid things such as building wind farms just because it feels nice for a while. Next month we can paint our highways green and put solar cells on electric trains. Personally I’d much prefer that we carefully weigh the costs and benefits of any public policy initative before we embark on it. However if you prefer to go with whim then at least you won’t be alone because most of the population seems to prefer their public policy to be evidence free.

16% of the world’s electricity from NPP’s built in the 60′s, 70′s and 80′s. Add the current 9GW in ongoing new NPP construction to go to 17% by 2020.

Hereunder a link to what is happening in the wind power sector, starting from the year 2000. Wind is apparently being installed more rapidly that NPP’s, seen in electricity production percentage terms.

I hope the moderator will leave my comments as it stands. And Peter lalor has valid arguments.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/07/btm-wind-market-report?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-July21-2010

Back in 2000, wind power generated just 0.25% of the world’s electricity. That year’s BTM Report made the astonishing forecast that by 2010 wind could provide as much as 1.78% of the world’s electricity consumption. While the actual figure of 1.6% is 10% lower than this, it is strikingly accurate for a prediction made a decade ago. Assuming this year’s report is as accurate, wind power really should have a good chance of hitting the milestone of 10% of the world’s electricity by 2020. Clearly any forecast this far out becomes a lot more speculative, but, pinning their colours to the mast, BTM suggest that by 2019 the global wind turbines world market might reach 126 GW installed per year and total capacity of over 950 GW.

I think the key thing is this – you say that you’d have to be a zealout to argue for expensive solutions to climate change. I’d simply say you’d have to be irrational to argue for super expensive solutions, as it isn’t necessary – it can be done cost effectively.

Nuclear power is not expensive (compared to other energy sources), and we will have to transition to it at some stage anyway. Not knocking down our forests and other critical ecosystems is not expensive, and the benefits go far beyond climate mitigation. Better agricultural practices and land management isn’t expensive, and can actually lead to MORE productive land. Transitioning to electric vehicles will probably cost a bit, but hey, peak oil and cheap nuclear energy will sort that out soon enough.

Having said that, I still don’t buy the argument that some economist can just put a price on climate change. The risk of wars, famine, destroyed natural resources, water shortages, millions of refugees etc. is too great to ignore. As I said earlier, compounding risks makes little sense when we know mitigation can probably fix the problem.

Er – no there isn’t. The climate is no more changeable now that it ever has been, or ever will be. The idea that we can control it is a fantasy exploited for the purposes of a government-sponsored career in ‘climate science’.

North Africa dried up, forcing the Romans to leave. Northern England got colder and wetter forcing the Romans to leave. If Australia dries up – history shows you what to do about it.

We reach 15+ billion tonnes of carbon when land use change, agricultural emissions etc. are also factored in.

Would you comment on these figures considering the qualifications put on the Guardian stats, the exclusion of countries like India and the 33% difference between this BraveNewClimate article and its Guardian reference.

There are several other articles on that site, particularly those that pertain to electrified and mag lev rail, that are quite thought-provoking.

BTW, I try to refer people to your site whenever I leave a comment on an energy topic, as your TCASE series is an excellent resource.

(How fire can be domesticated)