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Here is my side of the ABC Environment ‘debate’ I’ve had with Ian Lowe, based around my book ‘Why vs Why: Nuclear Power“.
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The arguments against nuclear power are hackneyed and wrong
In part two of a two-part debate on the prospect of nuclear power in Australia, Barry Brook argues that the arguments against nuclear are hackneyed and wrong. Part 1, “Nuclear Power – No Thanks!” by Ian Lowe can be read here.
The world is caught between dwindling energy resources and increasing climate change.
As China and India expand their economies, with the very human aim of improving the prosperity and quality of life enjoyed by their citizens, the global demand for cheap, convenient energy grows rapidly. If this demand is met by fossil fuels, we are headed for both an energy supply bottleneck and, due to the massive carbon emissions from fossil fuels, a climate disaster.
Ironically, if climate change is the “inconvenient truth” facing our fossil fuel-dependent society, then the inconvenient solution staring right back is advanced nuclear power. Not, as many suppose, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind (although they will play some role).
There is a shopping list of ‘standard objections’ mounted by those who challenge the viability or desirability of nuclear power. None of these arguments stands up to scrutiny.
Opponents claim that if the world ran on nuclear energy, uranium supplies would run out in at most a few decades and nuclear power plants would then have to shut down. This is false. The nuclear fuels, uranium and thorium, are both more abundant than tin, and with the new generation of fast spectrum breeders and thorium reactors, we would have abundant nuclear energy for millions of years. Yet even if it lasted a mere 1000 years, we would have ample time to develop exotic new future energy sources.
Critics argue that past nuclear accidents mean the technology is inherently dangerous. However, this simply ignores the fact that it is already hundreds of times safer than the coal, gas and oil we currently rely upon. Moreover, passive safety features do not rely on engineered intervention and remove the chance of human error, making it impossible to have a repeat of serious accidents such as Chernobyl.
Some contend that expanding commercial nuclear power would increase the risk of spreading nuclear weapons. Firstly, this has not been true historically. Furthermore, the products of modern ‘dry’ fuel recycling in fast reactors cannot be used for bombs. Indeed, burning plutonium in fast reactors takes this material permanently out of circulation, and is the most practical disposal mechanism imaginable.
Is the sun enough? No way!
Those opposed to nuclear energy claim it would leave a legacy of nuclear waste which would have to be managed for tens of thousands of years. This is true only if we do not recycle the uranium and other heavy metals in the waste (called “transuranics”) to extract all their useful energy.
Right now, mined uranium is cheap. However, in the longer term, a once-through-and-throw-away use of nuclear fuel – which extracts less than 1 per cent of the energy – will make no economic sense. Feeding ‘nuclear waste’ into fast reactors will use all the energy in uranium, and liquid fluoride thorium reactors will access the energy stored in thorium.
After repeated recycling, the tiny quantity of fission products (shattered uranium atoms) that remain will become less radioactive than natural granites and monazite sands within 300 years.
To claim that large amounts of energy (generating greenhouse gases) would be required to mine, process and enrich uranium, and to construct and later decommission nuclear power stations simply ignores a wealth of real-world data. Authoritative and independently verified whole-of-life-cycle analyses have repeatedly shown that energy inputs to nuclear power are as low as, or lower than, wind, hydro and solar thermal, and less than half those of solar photovoltaic panels.
That is today’s reality. In a future all-electric society – which includes electric or synthetic-fuelled vehicles supplied by nuclear power plants – greenhouse gas emissions from the nuclear cycle would be zero.
Finally, when all other arguments have been refuted, critics fall back on the claim that nuclear power takes too long to build or is too expensive compared to renewable energy. These arguments are perhaps the most regularly and transparently false arguments thrown up by those trying to block nuclear power from competing on a fair and level playing field with other energy sources.
Is nuclear power enough? Sure is!
Indeed, the evidence on energy replacement I present in the ‘yes’ case of the new book ‘Why vs Why: Nuclear Power’ (Pantera Press, 2010) demonstrates that large-scale nuclear power actually offers the fastest, cheapest and the only complete solution to ending our dependence on coal, oil and gas.
Many environmentalists believe the best low-carbon solution is for governments to guide us back to simpler, less energy-consuming lives, a vastly less consumer-oriented world. Notions like that are unrealistic. The world will continue to need energy, and lots of it. But fossil fuels are not a viable future option. Nor are renewables the main answer. There is no single solution, or “silver bullet”, for solving the energy and climate crises, but there are bullets, and they’re made of uranium and thorium, the fuels needed for nuclear plants.
It is time we embrace nuclear energy as a cornerstone of the carbon-free revolution the world needs to address climate change and long-term energy security in a world beyond fossil fuels. Advanced nuclear power that provides the technological key to unlocking awesome potential of these energy metals for the benefit humankind and for the ultimate sustainability of our global society.
Professor Barry Brook is the Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change at the University of Adelaide’s Environment Institute. He runs a popular climate change and energy options blog at http://bravenewclimate.com
Filed under: Emissions reduction, Nuclear Energy
Related to this post, of interest to international readers of this blog, the Why vs Why: Nuclear Power book is now available from Amazon.com:
http://www.amazon.com/WHY-vs-Nuclear-Power/dp/0980741858
Booko also has a detailed list of availability at different bookshops:
http://www1.booko.com.au/books/isbn/9780980741858
Im absolutely agree with you and support plenty the use of nuclear fission to mitigate climate change, as the most friendly, economically feasible and technically efficient source of energy the world needs right now. In Mexico were starting the same debate and in Australia and peoples mind change in favour when are well informed. Go Nuclear power for the next thousand years!
Even if we didn’t use breeder or fast reactor technologies, there’s still enough uranium in sea water to provide all of our energy requirements (electricity, synfuels, and industrial chemicals) for three to five thousand years.
But commercial breeder and fast reactors will probably be online before the middle of the century which will mean that humans will be able to power our society forever with clean nuclear energy.
Fast reactors are already online and have been for decades.
“Vietnam has called on South East Asian nations to build nuclear power stations to meet rising energy demands.
“The proposal came at an energy policy meeting held by the Asean group of countries in Dalat, Vietnam.”
Vietnam calls on Asean nations to embrace nuclear power
You have to put this information out there where the average worker can see,read,hear & talk about it.. A large portion of the world still has not forgotten Chernobyl.. And until you can convince them that this is a safe technology; you are always going to have an insane resisstance to nuclear energy
The push by Vietnam for nuclear power obviously needs to be seen in the context of Asian economic growth. The Asian Development Bank forecasts growth across the whole of central and east Asia at 7.5% for 2010 and 7.3% for 2011. Big numbers.
Asian Development Outlook 2010
This really does make a mockery of suggestions that energy efficiency (no matter how desirable) and changes of culture and lifestyle in western countries can seriously address the climate problem.
Takes too long to build nuke power plants?
3 years from first concrete pour to loading fuel rods.
China AD 2010.
Look, I´ve said it before and I´ll say it again, allow the market mechanism to determine which powerplant to be built, and fission wins hands down. Cost/Kw-No Co2 emissions -24/7 Availability etc.
The only thing the government has to do is not regulate the bejesus out of the nuclear industry, and/or price CO2 emissions for what they are , ie a climate altering substance. But I suppose I am preaching to the choir here on this site .
Found this IEA/NEA study titled “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity”.
http://www.nea.fr/pub/egc/docs/exec-summary-ENG.pdf
Nuclear is murdering anything. I still don’t understand why there is such a discrepancy between studies in terms of cost…
Scott,
Thanks for a very interesting link.
The study has a built in bias against coal fired plants so I wanted to figure out how to convert “$30/tonne of CO2″ into $/MWh. Am I right to assume that coal plants emit ~1 tonne of Co2 per MWh?
If I am right, the bias against coal works out at about $30/MWh, which makes a huge difference to the economic comparisons.
While I believe that nuclear power will be cheaper in the long run, you need to tinker with the market through carbon trading to make nuclear look dramatically less expensive than coal at today’s prices.
Whether ‘climate change’ is impending, imminent and catastrophic or a yet-future event and manageable, nuclear power for electricity, desalination and industrial applications is the most logical and defensible source. It is intellectually dishonest to say otherwise. Good job, Dr. Brook, on your concise post – a hallmark of yours.
As to resource depletion, I’d appreciate anyone’s response to this take on ‘Peak Oil’:
http://rayharvey.org/index.php/2010/01/peak-oil/
Thanks Barry and DocForesight. We’ve just got to get out there and tell the masses the truth about nuclear power. It’s our turn to shout down the irrational anti-nukes, Lowe, Henry, Green, Diesendorf, Brown etc. They’ve had their say. It’s time we had ours.Let’s do it. Could I suggest that we each pen a letter to the Australian to reach them on the same day. How about for Wed August 3? If they get twenty plus letters from us, they might print two or three. Send it to: letters@theaustralian.com.au. I’ve had two printed in the last month. How about it guys??
DocForesight,
Thanks for the interesting piece on “Peak Oil”. Ray Harvey is surely right when he suggests that there is much more oil out there than even the most optimistic estimates predict.
That said, it is still a poor use of fossil fuels to burn them to heat our houses, generate electricity or power our motor cars given that there are viable alternatives.
The “Easy Oil” IS running out so we drill deeper and develop new resources such as tar shales. This means increased production costs that are driving gas prices higher but this effect is small compared to the impact of increasing demand caused by the rapid industrialisation of countries such as China and India.
The rising prices for fossil fuels are good news for all other energy sources and for nuclear power most of all.
Ray Harvey points out that “Environmentalism” is a tool of Neo-Marxism that aims to replace free markets and individual liberty with government coercion.
While I support the aims of this blog when they are pushing nuclear power, I part company from them when they recommend “Big Government” or even more repugnant “World Government” solutions. The best way to change the behaviour of billions of people is by persuasion rather than coercion. For example, given a choice, most consumers would buy electricity from whoever offered them the best deal. The big problem for Australia is that there are no NPPs at all so how can there be market competition between coal and nuclear?
I think it is possible that Peak Oil could cause a global economic slowdown that takes coal with it, not so much natural gas or tar sands. For example less point in shipping goods from China if the shipping fuel cost is too high. In turn China burns less coal. For some reason the world oil price is just half what it was in 2008 despite lower production now. That suggests the jitters could return any time. Combine that with an El Nino year when food production is difficult and there could be a major panic attack. Conservatives who think economic numbers must always be bigger and better will take it the hardest.
When though? This bloke reckons 2012. I’m sure there will tough times ahead certainly within the next decade due to the PO/GW conjunction. That is, I don’t think we will all be better off in a material sense.
DocForesight and Camel,
If you want to discuss peak oil (or coal or gas) why don’t you make the minimal effort to find at least one authoritative source regarding known reserves, rate of consumption and rate of discovery of new reserves rather than relying on a kook who thinks that “Environmentalism is Neo-Marxism”. Plain logical suggests that might be a decent starting point.
Methinks you are more interested in spreading so called “libertarian” ideology than anything else.
Gallopingcamel
I disagree we should be advocating putting a price on carbon for electricity generation. I agree with regulating emissions for power plants. That is the correct way, IMO, to internalise the cost of CO2 emissions.
The reason I oppose putting a price on carbon for electricity generation is here: http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/01/31/alternative-to-cprs/#comment-81570 and how to achieve is in the following post.
If we add a price on carbon, through tax or other method, many of the regulatory distortions that make it impossible for nuclear to compete on level playing field will remain in place. They may be removed slowly and some may never be removed. Putting a price on carbon is covering up the real problem. The real problem was really well put by Uncle Pete in this much of what he said:
The sort of impediments and regulatory distortions to the market that are blocking nuclear in Australia are:
1. ban on nuclear power
2. high investor risk premium because of the politics
3. Renewable Energy Targets
4. Renewable Energy Certificates
5. Feed in Tariffs for renewables
6. Subsidies and tax advantages for renewable energy
7. Subsidies and tax advantages for fossil fuel electricity generators
8. subsidies for transmission and grid enhancements to support renewable energy
9. massive funding for research into renewable energy
10. massive subsidies for research into carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
11. Guarantees that the government will carry the risk for any leakage from CCS
12. No equivalent guarantee for management of once used nuclear fuel
13. Massive subsidies and government facilitation for the gas industry, coal seam gas and coal to gas industries (despite the latter putting toxic chemicals into the ground water and the Great Artesian Basin water)
14. Fast tracking of the approvals process for wind power, solar power, gas industry, coal industry while nuclear industry remains band from even fair comparative studies by Treasury, Productivity Commission, ABARE, Department of Climate change and more. We can just imagine what the approvals process would be like for a nuclear power plant!!
Peter – I find this argument for the removal of a whole range of regulations extremely persuasive. It is entirely consistent with the sort of situation I see in all manner of public policy areas where the stock standard solutions entail new regulation but the problem in fact persists or exists due to excess regulations.
In terms of whether fossil fuel emissions should be taxed or regulated I think both represent a cost to business and neither makes much real difference if you don’t remove the regulations that impede nuclear. It is far better in my view to to withdraw the props of industry assistance than to add new regulations.
Peter Lang, 29 July 2010 at 17.15
Interesting list you have there, but I think you can really just narrow it down to the first two points. Get rid of the ban and risk premium on nuclear power in Australia, and the other points will surely disappear pretty quickly.
Perhaps introducing a carbon price after removing regulations on nuclear would be good for the nuclear industry. Might give it the competitive advantage over the coal industry that it deserves after decades of being disadvantaged (i.e. banned). It would also slow/stop Australia’s native forests from being knocked down.
Peter Lang,
You are all too well aware of the mountain you have to climb to get even one NPP on line in Australia. I support your efforts from afar and plan to send information from my home state in the hope that it will help.
During August I will visit several large scale electricity generating facilities and plan to send my findings to Barry for review (off-line).
Here in Florida we have thermal solar, photo-voltaic, fossil fuel and nuclear power generation. Having such a broad mix of generating technologies means that the professionals at Florida Power & Light have experience that few other operating companies can claim. IMHO these opinions should have great weight compared to the barrage of conflicting academic studies we are subjected to.
quokka,
I understand that you, Fran Barlow and others on this blog hold opposite views to mine when it comes to politics; even so we may be able to work together on energy policy if we don’t let ideology get in the way of doing what makes sense.
Your SPAM filter swallowed my response to quokka.
If Julia Gillard really wants a consensus on climate action why doesn’t she take up shadow minister Greg Hunt’s offer of a consensus on nuclear power.
You can’t get much more politically consensual than having a bipartisan agreement on including nuclear power in the current MRET renewables scheme.
The barriers to consensus on climate action at the moment are assumed to be the AGW sceptics. But climate sceptics are usually pro-nuclear, which is to say they are renewable sceptics too. If the folly of relying on large scale renewables as the major response to energy reform was removed from the equation, by means of introducing the bipartisan nuclear alternative, much of the sceptical opposition to action on climate would disappear.
And, on the other side, amongst those who favour climate action, the believers in global warming theory, there are many who are, nonetheless, pro-nuclear, as this site itself attests. People like James Hanson, the NASA arch-warmist, and James Lovelock, inventor of the Gaia hypothesis, come to mind, as well as Bob Carr, and even Ziggy Switowski.
This leaves the diehard-greenie anti-nuclear rump out on its own. As near as a national consensus as we will ever get, I would say.
There will never be a consensus on action over climate change while nuclear power is out of the mix. Simple as that.
Julia Gillard should therefore grab the nuclear consensus on offer, severely split the greens, and laugh all the way to election day.
Julia, surprise us all, and change the game!
fisho, I agree totally. It’s a no brainer and will occur to Labour eventually. I just wonder if it will be within 1 year, 5 or 10. How far down the path of failure (to replace coal/gas) do they have to go before the penny drops?
I just wonder if it will be within 1 year, 5 or 10. How far down the path of failure (to replace coal/gas) do they have to go before the penny drops?
I fear that under a re-elected labour government, not for at least the next term, with the Greens holding the balance of power. The same probably goes for the coalition as well.
Talking about dropping the penny I caught the tail end of the interview with Penny Wong on ABC 7.30 report last night. Unbelievably she rabbits on about geothermal, solar and no doubt CCS got a mention somewhere. There is no sense of urgency or technical realism. This is what happens putting a lawyer in charge of climate mitigation. It’s as if the low carbon transition is waiting in the cupboard and will be speedily brought out when the time is right.
If Ms Wong actually believes any of that stuff in my opinion she has to go. The worry is that in a month’s time she could get her old job back or her replacement could be even more off the planet. Lawd help us.
Dead right Fisho,
Bipartisanship on nuclear is essential. I suggested Rudd offer it to Howard when he mentioned it a few years ago. I’ve also just written toJulia suggesting it as well. Let’s ALL contact Julia with the idea now, in time for the election. Take five minutes from this blogging exercise guys and do it.
Are the ALP more likely to change their position on nuclear power whilst in government or whilst in opposition?
fisho,
You summed it up really well. There are plenty of reasons to hope for a broad coalition in favour of an industrial society based on cheap electricity generated by NPPs.
Much more likely to do so when in government. Raising such a controversial wedge issue when in opposition and when the Liberals would then run with it at their expense would make no political sense.
The ALP is unlikely to support such an initiative if the Greens hold the balance of power in the senate.
On the contrary, were the ALP to raise the issue in such circumstances, the Libs would be forced to side with them against the Greens. The ALP could show that while it would block with The Greens on some issues it could block with the Coalition on others.
The Greens are not going to find many issues to block with the Coalition on so the ALP can have its choice of legislative partner.
The penny that has to drop really is the Wong one. Although an ALP supporter, I’m sorely tempted to support the coalition on the strength of Greg Hunt’s stand. But his mob are pretty half-hearted about it if Abbott’s response to my letter is any indication. Aaarrrggghhh! When are the hopeless buggers all going to wake up??
I have been writing to both major parties and the Greens about bipartisan agreement on Climate Change and nuclear power since 2006. From the few replies I have received my perception is that while all support action on climate change in principle, none support changing the status quo too much. The problem is not immediate and therefore can be solved in 2020 or 2050 by somebody else. The Greens are just against nuclear power, full stop and will not consider it while they have breath in their bodies. Labour will not consider nuclear power as it is a fear weapon of last resort against the Liberals. Vote Liberal to get a Nuclear Power Station near you! The letter I received from Rudd on this subject in 2007 was almost rabid about nuclear power and I knew instantly his interest in climate change only extended to getting elected. The only thing that will change this situation is over whelming public support for nuclear power. As more and more funds are wasted on renewable energy with corresponding rises in electricity charges the chances of this occurring will get better, but will still take many years.
As I’ve said a number of times, Terry, if there is going to be nuclear power in this country, it has to come from the ALP with Green neutrality. The Libs will never do it alone.
It’s the same as other reforms like floating the dollar, reducing protectionism, independent RBA and so forth …
The argument that Nuclear power could not be build in time to make any serious contribution against Climate Change is out of date and downright false. The AP1000 could be built in around 3 years, and the Advanced CANDU (could use Uranium striaght out of the ground – Good for Australia) could be built in 3.5 years.
Nuclear power is perfectly suited to demand in Australia. I was looking at a daily fluctuation graph for Victoria, and around 80% is baseload demand. The capacity could be built to meet the higher end of demand, but during off peak times, desalination could be preformed (Nuke plants in Russia are already doing this). Although I am from the UK, I have read that aridity is becoming a major problem over there, so this situation works out great. I assume some of the higher end of peak demand is for Air Conditioning. I don’t see why this small extra demand cant be met with some PV on a few houses/unused land. Nuclear and Renewables working together in perfect harmony!
Huw Jones,
You are so right. Even a 1 GWe NPP can be built in less than 4 years. Imagine how many small (~75 MWe), factory built nukes could be built in the same interval.
During WW2, 2750 “Liberty Ships” each weighing ~10,000 tonnes were built in 4 years.
It is amazing what can be achieved when the public understands the need for it. Can we persuade enough people to get even one NPP built in Australia?
Huw I think you’ve touched on a couple of sensitive topics in summer peak demand and desalination. With urban shade temperatures now getting to 48C such as the time of the Melbourne bush fires we need air conditioning for survival. However PV at $6/w to run a 2.5 kw AC unit would cost $15,000 per house so passive cooling methods may be cheaper long run. Some power companies such as Adelaide’s ETSA want to regulate air conditioning by remote control.
With desal the current fad is to nominate a wind farm as the ‘offset’ for the use of grid electricity in the reverse osmosis process which uses 2-4 kwh per thousand litres of water. Again heatwaves are the very time we need most desal and wind output is weakest. The reality of course is that we shovel more coal into the boilers to get us through heatwaves, a kind of self reinforcing cycle. Instead of more fossil fuel burning to maintain Arctic blasts in cavernous shopping malls we should have NP and greater efficiency. The politicians don’t see it though.
I just cant make up my mind on the Nuclear debate, both sides seem to make such good arguments.
I’ve read David Mackay’s ‘Sustainable Energy’ which suggests we cant get all our energy from Renewables (economically at least), but then I read an article by Amory Lovins which suggests we can.
Who the hell do I believe?
I’ve been a lurker on this website for a while now, and you all seem to know your stuff. I can see no reason why you would be making it up.
I need to make up my mind which side I’m on in the next few months, as I have to decide what to study at college (I’m trying to decide between a degree in Nuclear Technology or Renewable energy – I want to do whatever will help the battle against global warming the best).
Thanks for any and all help.
@ Tom Williams:
I need to make up my mind which side I’m on in the next few months, as I have to decide what to study at college (I’m trying to decide between a degree in Nuclear Technology or Renewable energy – I want to do whatever will help the battle against global warming the best).
When considering which energy source is better for the bulk of civilisation’s needs, just check out current examples of individual nations which get the majority of power from these competing sources. France would be the obvious poster-boy for nuclear power. Just compare the French experience to that of some modern industrial nation which obtains the majority of its kWe.hours from wind and solar.
Tom Williams says,
Greenpeace can help. (Notice the two nuclear power plants in the top right corner photo. Windpower and gas for the rest of us, but
when Greenpeace associates need clean reliable power …)
(How fire can be domesticated)
Sorry, top left corner photo.
Tom, feel free to post any specific questions that will help you make your choice.
You might look to review posts here by Barry under the Sustainable Nuclear tab and the Renewable Limits tab.
Whatever you do, stay focussed on two things: a rational decision making process, and the end outcome you want to achieve. Be ruthlessly objective, and ruthlessly pragmatic.
Good luck with your decision.
Go for nuclear power Tom. There will be lots of future opportunities in university schools of nuclear science and engineering here in Australia. But to help you choose Tom, note the following.
1. 20 additional countries are building reactors at present adding to the 33 already generating nuclear power. Australia will get there eventually.
2. Denmark has stopped building wind farms because they’ve done nothing to reduce emissions and have given the Danes the dearest power in the EU.
3. The new environment minister in the British government has been slammed for wanting to build thousands of extra windfarms both on and off shore. He’s ultra Green and obviously knows little about the inadequacy, part time nature and low capacity factor of wind.
4 The Americans really gave up on wind, and sun for that matter back in the 1980′s. A poll of 280 science and energy experts signed off on both never making any significant contribution to their total energy needs. With 0.6 % of their total energy at present from these two they have been proven right.
5. I could go on and on and on Tom but suffice to say, the world is going increasingly nuclear [54 reactors under construction as I write]. I think your best chance for an energy career lies with nuclear power. Get yourself into a course in Sydney that attaches itself to Lucas Heights [I've been there]. You’re the sort of young person we old fellows need in the nuclear game, especially as Australia gradually comes to an acceptance of nuclear power. Final point. there is a majority of Aussies who are in favour of it. It’s only the lack of some real leadership from our pollies who have stymied it so far. The problem of course is that politicians don’t lead. They follow. Get in there Tom and try to drag them into the 21st century. It’ll be tough, but don’t give up. If you want to talk more, contact me on [08]86821571 or patez1@yahoo.com. Keep an open mind Tom and best of luck.
Cheers
Terry [pro-nuke since 1981 when in Canada where I learned the truth about nuclear power]
Tom Williams,
Many years ago I was at the cross roads similar to the one you describe. My physics tutor advised me to go into the nuclear power industry because he predicted that it would overwhelm all competing technologies. Nuclear power would be “too cheap to meter”.
I decided he was crazy and opted for a career in telecommunications. I sometimes wonder what would have happened if he had recommended a career in telecommunications because inter-continental video communications would be “too cheap to meter”. Probably, I would have reacted by training as a nuclear power scientist.
Contrary to my expectations, I make video calls to my Australian friends free of charge but I am still paying $0.10/kWAh for electricity.
Tom Williams,
When I was graduating it was obvious that next to a workable anti-gravity system, the world needed a storage battery with a price/weight/performance at least 10 times greater than lead/acid technology. That need remains today but how credible is it?
For many years I developed instrumentation for monitoring inertial confinement fusion. Then it became clear that the “Pot of Gold” at the end of the fusion rainbow was receding. Will we have a full scale fusion power plant (1 GWe) during this century? I seriously doubt it.
Nuclear fission technology on the other hand has huge potential for improvement without assuming any weird science or quantum leaps. Starting over I would go for really neat mass produced NPPs such as the LFTR operating at one atmosphere pressure, without inflammable materials such as graphite moderators (Chernobyl) or liquid sodium (IFRs).
Imagine small Thorium reactors built in a factory and delivered to site on a truck. Forget about building elaborate electrical distribution networks as most of the power would be local. You are probably familiar with LFTR but if not check out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHs2Ugxo7-8
http://energyfromthorium.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=64&Itemid=63
@quokka — The purpose of linking to the Ray Harvey “Peak Oil” piece was not to spread ‘libertarian ideology’ but to cause people to reflect on the history of inaccurate predictions of the imminent demise of the resource or increase in famine and mass starvation.
Why don’t you address that history rather than attack the source of the information? Do you dispute the contention of the inaccurate predictions?
You will note that I fully support the expansion of all sizes of nuclear power plants and both uranium and thorium fuel cycles. Finally, my ire is directed at the neo-Malthusians who seem quite content with relegating the 2+ billion who don’t have electricity to remain in energy poverty.
I’m in the same situation as Tom Williams. However, there are practically no Nuclear courses in Australia which is frustrating. What should I do?
Scott,
http://physics.anu.edu.au/nuclear/
Surely postgrad study here and a degree in physics/electrical engineering would have you on your way? Then again, I don’t know much about nuclear engineering!
Since we do not have an actual nuclear industry here yet, the best thing to do would be to equip yourself with the right skills for when it arrives. I would suggest there would be a large overlap with any large power station, chemical plant, or manufacturing environment. I would imagine that pretty much every engineering discipline would play a role: civil, electrical, chemical and mechanical engineers would all be involved in various aspects of the project, and at various stages. Also construction, project management, financing, hr, etc. etc. I suspect the nuclear physics aspect would be quite small. Think of it as a large multidisciplinary engineering project. I would further suggest that experience in any engineering environment that adheres to rigorous production and operation processes would be good background.
On that basis I would suggest you (i) do what you like best, (ii) do what you are good at, (iii) aim to work in a large project context with rigorous engineering design, development, deployment and operation processes, and (iv) stay aware and keep you’re eyes open for early developments in the industry.
Alternatively, do (i) an (ii) and move os to work directly in the industry, say for Westinghouse, with the intention of returning at the right point in history.
When the nuclear industry starts up here, we’ll be importing the specific nuclear expertise and designs, and using local engineering contractors. They’ll be desperate for labour in the form of well credentialled engineers and project managers of all stripes, with experience in good process. If you have that, there should be plenty of opportunities.
Tom:
attend to Finrod’s joke: there are no industrial nations obtaining the majority of its kwe from wind and solar.
I’m guessing there won’t be, unless the nation is small (and so can manage a fluctuating grid more easily), with spectacular hydro storage.
I say go nuclear, though learn as much as possible about renewables. I’m curious. Can you share with us what you take to be convincing in Amory Lovins’ analysis?
The lack of a nuclear power infra structure in Australia may prove to be a blessing rather than a curse. When you start your NPP program (and that may come quite soon with people like Barry Brook providing leadership) you will have to build your expertise from a very small base. You will not be bound by the gray beards who control nuclear technology in France, Britain and the USA.
My hope is that you will show that admirable Australian trait of independent thought and come up with something truly innovative.
Barry Brook 27 July 2010 (Nuclear Power – Yes Please) Five Main Objections
The included five main objections:
“Opponents claim that if the world ran on nuclear energy, uranium supplies would run out in at most a few decades and nuclear power plants would then have to shut down. This is false…… Yet even if it lasted a mere 1,000 years, we would have ample time to develop exotic new future energy sources.”
When critics claim uranium supplies are limited, they are referring to the more likely situation where standard LWR’s are still being used (or variants), while no reprocessing is being done or fast breeder reactors are yet in widespread use. Recall the US Ford Foundation study (1977) recommended reprocessing not to be used for reasons of safety & expense. It doesn’t seem likely that the minimum 1,500 – 2,000 reactors required around the world (to counter GW) will be IFR’s as that technology will need fine tuning before being widely implemented. One of the best off-the-shelf models offered now is supposed to be the AP 1000, to get the ‘renaissance’ underway. Therefore the concern about uranium shortage isn’t entirely false as Prof Brook claims. Furthermore, 1,000 years will definitely NOT be needed to devise a superior energy source, as there have already been many dedicated minds working on this for the last 80 yrs with breakthrough concepts identified. Just because James Lovelock or Prof Brook cannot see other possibilities doesn’t mean that other researchers cannot. Thorium may not be adequate as an alternative.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115×235481
“Critics argue that past nuclear accidents mean the technology is inherently dangerous. However, this simply ignores the fact that it is already hundreds of times safer than the coal, gas and oil we currently rely upon.”
Unfortunately, the nuclear industry continues to use immediate & obvious death statistics only, to defend their own industry & ignore or dispute any delayed deaths, while simultaneously pointing to both immediate & delayed deaths from coal plants. B. L. Cohen wrote that about 25 deaths each year can be expected from each 1,000 MW coal plant (1987). Yet any mention of cancer clusters near nuclear plants immediately attracts derision from pro-nukes. Prof Brook is ignoring such delayed effects from nuclear plants during normal operation & after major accidents.
http://www.courthousenews.com/2010/07/12/28744.htm
http://www.pottsmerc.com/articles/2010/01/08/opinion/srv0000007264703.txt
http://www.radiation.org/spotlight/090804_Huffingtonpost.html
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2010/2010-04-26-01.html
“Some contend that expanding commercial nuclear power would increase the risk of spreading nuclear weapons. Firstly, this has not been true historically.”
Prof Lowe has already given the example from Al Gore while he was in the White House, saying: “every nuclear weapons proliferation issue we dealt with was connected to a nuclear reactor program.”
Why doesn’t Prof Brook accept that view from someone in a position to know?
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/UN_atomic_chief_warns_of_nuclear_power_dangers_999.html
“Those opposed to nuclear energy claim it would leave a legacy of nuclear waste which would have to be managed for tens of thousands of years. This is true only if we do not recycle the uranium and other heavy metals in the waste (called “transuranics”) to extract all their useful energy.”
Again, the success of the IFR program is essential for Prof Brook to successfully counter this objection. The history of nuclear power is littered with failures; Ford nucleon car, nuclear rocket & plane, X-ray laser, ploughshare program & of course the never-ending sinkhole for fusion energy. Will the IFR program really live up to its promise?
“Finally, when all other arguments have been refuted, critics fall back on the claim that nuclear power takes too long to build or is too expensive compared to renewable energy. These arguments are perhaps the most regularly and transparently false arguments thrown up by those trying to block nuclear power from competing on a fair and level playing field with other energy sources.
Indeed, the evidence on energy replacement I present in the ‘yes’ case of the new book I’ve co-authored with Ian Lowe demonstrates that large-scale nuclear power actually offers the fastest, cheapest and the only complete solution to ending our dependence on coal, oil and gas.”
Unfortunately, conditions in some Asian countries with non-democratic political systems, cannot be directly compared with the western world. New reactors could readily cost much more in western countries. Already, some bloggers on this site have actually suggested implementing similar authoritive restrictions on citizen’s rights to prevent them from interfering with the nuclear ‘renaissance’ while refusing to acknowledge there is anything wrong about nuclear power to concern those same citizens. They are trying to shove nuclear plants upon us undemocratically, while using any convenient evasive description (propaganda) to allay our concerns. When you look more closely at their explanations, they are the ones that fail to stack up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/16/business/global/16chinanuke.html
http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=nuclear-power-could-cost-trillions-2009-06-19
http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/05/04/dv82xl-2/#comment-62863
@Machiavelli
And just what might these be? What we desperately need is solution to the CO2 problem over a 20-50 year time frame. Technological cargo cults need not apply.
Machiavelli:
you accuse barry of ignoring indirect radiation effects and then you cite “evidence.” but that evidence is not accepted by barry cause the studies upon which it is based are bogus (Mangano/baby teeth).
when you can show the seriously elevated levels of radiation pouring from a nuclear power plant and manifesting itself in fencepost man as millirem, then you have real evidence of radiation release.
then of course you need good studies connecting very low levels of radiation release with higher cancer rates. but once you start down this road, you have to explain the inconvenient data on the lack of correlation and sometimes inverse correlation between rising cancer incidence and higher natural background radiation.
DV: We Miss You!!
As Terry Krieg suggested I sent the following letter to the Australian and the West Australian newspapers on Tuesday night.
Protests against Coal Burning Power Stations
Green groups are currently campaigning against the proposals by the NSW and WA State Governments to construct new coal burning power stations, instead of using more renewable energy. Real world data shows these state governments do not have a choice, as nuclear power is banned in Australia and renewable energy has not replaced fossil fuel power generation anywhere in the world.
For 20 years Germany, Denmark and Spain’s have invested or committed, almost 100 billion euros, subsidising renewable energy. The result is little net energy return, high electricity costs and not one fossil fuel power station replaced. Germany is now planning a fleet of coal burning power stations, plus an extension to the service life of their existing nuclear reactors to meet their future energy needs.
By stark contrast during the 1970s and 1980s, in just 10 years, France constructed 35 nuclear power stations and replaced almost all their coal burning power stations. France now has 58 nuclear reactors and exports non carbon nuclear energy to Germany, Britain and Italy. France has the lowest carbon emissions of the large, developed global economies and low electricity costs.
The world’s current fleet of 439 operating nuclear reactors in 40 countries, some almost 50 years old, saves 2.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year with a documented safety record vastly superior to any fossil fuel generator. So called, nuclear waste still contain 90% of nuclear energy and can potentially power global energy needs for hundreds of years using Generation 4 fast breeder nuclear reactors. Russia, China and India have developed breeder prototypes after President Clinton cancelled the USA program in 1994 for political reasons.
Until there is bipartisan support for nuclear power, State Governments will continue to promote renewable energy and duplicate fossil fuel power stations to provide energy for the 70% of time when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. Real world data shows that this will be a very expensive policy, resulting in high electricity costs, with little or no impact on greenhouse gas emissions.
Today I had a call from the West Australian to say my letter has been shortlisted to be published. I have had no response from the Australian except to say they have received it. I hope they received plenty of letters on this subject.
Machiavelli,
I read your long post carefully and then decided to examine the sources you quoted.
The first link was “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”
By Arjun Makhijani and Michele Boyd
Every major point made in that paper is flat out false. I wondered how anyone would publish such nonsense so I checked Arjun’s qualifications and it turns out he is less qualified than I am to discuss fission reactors (we both worked on fusion processes). Arjun’s real problem is that he works for an outfit pushing a “No Coal, No Nuke” energy policy.
For example Arjun says that Thorium does not solve the proliferation issue because Thorium is converted into U233 which is an excellent material for making bombs. Through ignorance or deliberate deception he fails to mention that the U232 is also produced. U232 is a powerful gamma emitter that would destroy nearby electronics while advertising its location. In other words the Uranium produced in Thorium reactors not usable in weapons.
While I could debunk this paper point by point, would you listen if I did?
Oak Ridge National Laboratories is a reliable source of information on thorium reactors:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHs2Ugxo7-8
http://energyfromthorium.com/
The evidence that there are elevated cancer rates around Nuclear plants is very weak, and even if there is a causal link, I don’t honestly care. There’s a proven link between driving and increased likely hood of death, but no-one is calling for that to be banned. Why does Nuclear have to have 0% public risk when nothing else we do does? The increased likely hood quoted by anti nukes is very low and not statistically viable – 37 over a 30 year period, for example in the KIKK report. I very much doubt there is a cancer link, why would there be? People who are exposed to higher rates of radiation on a regular basis – air traffic workers for example, are exposed to a much higher rate of radiation than Nuke workers. France, producing 3/4ths of its electricity from Nuclear, and using Reprocessing (which is perhaps the most radiological of all nuclear processes) you would expect to have a high cancer rate right?
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_dea_fro_can-health-death-from-cancer
The ‘Uranium is going to run out really fast if we speed up Nuclear’ thing is also a load of crap. The anti nuclear people tend to take the current assured ‘economic’ resources and divide it by 10 (we probably need about a 10 fold increase) and get 5 years (we have around 50 years supply based on current know reserves). However, this ignores 3 points 1) there has been little Uranium Prospecting sine the early 80′s 2) a doubling of price is likely to increase supply 10 fold – enough to accommodate a 10 fold increase is consumption, for 50 years. This would increase energy prices by around 10% and allow ample time for the fast breeder to get here – which is highly likely to, as there have already been demonstration plants of this type all over the world.
Something else I was thinking about on the train today – a large part of the assumed Life Cycle Emissions (and uncertainly) associated with Nuclear Plants is the cost of decommissioning. Now most of the reactors under consideration have life spans around 60 years (its worth mentioning that many reactors which have had their lifespans increased to 60 years – AGR for example – had projected lives of 25 years, so its probably longer than 60 years).
Now, we can assume that the bulk of the ‘next gen’ will be built in the 2020′s, based on the 60 year life span, therefore, they will be decommissioned in the 2080′s. Lets face it, if we haven’t ‘decardonized’ our economy by 2080, then we never will. Therefore we can assume the decommissioning costs (and a lot of the waste treatment costs) in terms of C02, to be zero, is near that.
Something else I was thinking about on the train today – a large part of the assumed Life Cycle Emissions (and uncertainly) associated with Nuclear Plants is the cost of decommissioning.
I wonder if that’s true. I understand that the decommissioning costs for LWRs aren’t all that onerous. I suspect it might be the British experience with decommissioning their gas-cooled graphite core reactors (a much more expensive proposition as it turns out) which has contributed to an urban myth of expensive reactor decommissioning.
Does anyone know where I can find a LCA for various forms of energy production? I’ve been trying to find one by the IEA but to no avail.
Huw Jones,
All living things evolved in a radioactive environment. Even so, large doses of ionising radiation are harmful. There is a Dilbert (Scott Adams) joke about this. Question: Why is stupidity like nuclear radiation? Answer: Both can be used for good or evil but you don’t want to get any on you.
About 50 % of humans exposed to acute doses of ~600 REM (Roentgen Equivalent in Man) will die within 6 weeks but the mortality drops sharply if the dose is lower. For example, the short term mortality among people who received 50 REM or less following the Chernobyl accident was zero.
While deliberately exposing humans to ionising radiation is unethical, there is plenty of evidence from Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and many nuclear accidents around the world to demonstrate that even quite large amounts of radiation can increase one’s life expectancy. This effect is known as radiation hormesis; an interesting field of study in its own right.
In the USA, the doctrine of ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) is the basis of all state and federal nuclear safety regulations. While people like me who are trained in radiation safety know that this doctrine is unmitigated bullshit, we follow it meticulously because we can. It does not affect our operating costs significantly.
In contrast, applying the ALARA philosophy to power plants based on fossil fuels, solar power or wind would bring them all to a shuddering halt.
DV8 I am doing my best but we really need you.
Very interested article on the risks of radiation from New Scientist.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727715.800-whos-afraid-of-radiation.html
Tom Bond,
That link you sent explains the situation pretty well. I was nodding my head up to the penultimate paragraph:
“Changing the limits would bring practical benefits. Radiation safety is a major contributor to the cost of nuclear power, so any relaxation should lead to big cost reductions. ”
Radiation safety concerns do cause considerable “over-engineering” and therefore increased capital costs. For example the AREVA “Kerena” NPP has four separate safety systems. However, while I lack the exact figures, it seems unlikely that these features add more than 10% to the total construction cost.
When it comes to plant operations the savings from cutting back on safety regulations are tiny. My state’s “Yellow Book” regulations mandate:
1. High radiation areas. Special door interlocks. Various types of monitoring systems including radiation hard (e.g. Vidicon) cameras. Visible and audible alarms prior to system start up. “Kill” switches every 100 feet. Active search procedures.
2. Area monitors for the entire secure area of the facility including those that are not radiation areas.
3. Monitoring of air vents and underground water. Disposal of all process materials must be documented.
4. Training for all radiation workers.
5. Dosimeters for all radiation workers.
6. Regular inspections and audits.
It sounds like a lot but the costs amount to $5 million per year, much less than 1% of our annual sales. OK, I will admit that the paper work is a royal pain!. I have 12 years of direct responsibility for radiation safety and five years membership of our corporate radiation safety oversight committee.
In the USA there are regulations that do have a major effect on the cost of NPPs but in my view they are related to imaginary safety issues rather than the real ones I am familiar with. For example, the insurance bond that must be posted under the Price-Anderson regulations and the unpredictable licensing process that forced the destruction of the Shoreham plant (Long Island).
Another example of crazy licensing regulations is the likely shut down of Vermont Yankee in 2011 owing to a Tritium leak. This has more to do with hysteria than radiation safety.
@quokka –
You seem particularly concerned about CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Do you think the 3+ billion people who can’t imagine the quality of life you currently enjoy give a flying flip about CO2 or its possible climate effects?
The vast majority of them just hope to find enough calories to consume to keep them alive for another day. And we in the west navel-gaze and hand-wring over possible events 30-50-100 years hence. Is this the best use of our time?
Never let a bad bit of ideology get polluted by a little thing like facts eh?
A 2010 World Bank public opinion survey finds that belief in the seriousness of climate change and the necessity for action for mitigation is strongest in the developing world and of all the countries surveyed strongest in Bangladesh. Not to be flippant about it, but it seems to me that the population of Bangladesh is not overly prone to obsessing about allegedly “middle class” causes from the comfort of their SUVs.
Public attitudes toward
climate change
There is some sort of moral lesson here too, that people with far less seem to care far more about the conditions that their children and grandchildren may have to live under.
Aside from what people think, one could reasonably ask in what way is spewing ever increasing volumes of GHGs into the atmosphere going to help the poorest people on the planet. On the contrary, there is every indication that they will cop the worst of it.
quokka,
“Aside from what people think, one could reasonably ask in what way is spewing ever increasing volumes of GHGs into the atmosphere going to help the poorest people on the planet. On the contrary, there is every indication that they will cop the worst of it.”
What the “poorest people” need is electricity but we in the developed world are trying to restrict them to “renewables”. In many cases this amounts to denying them electric power.
Fortunately we are not in a position to impose such cruel restrictions on nations such as China and India who will embrace prosperity whether we like it or not.
gallopincamel (5 Aug 2010)
Feel free to raise as many points as you like about the Thorium reference. We will all be interested. But remember, based on previous behavior from the nuclear establishment, we would be surprised if any material from Oak Ridge NL is free from pro-nuclear bias. They will present their views in the most positive light & avoid mentioning ‘difficult’ issues as they usually do.
quokka (4 Aug 2010)
I have provided a very basic preview of a newly identified source of renewable energy by a private Australian researcher that seems to have been missed by many (a). Although other mavericks have found varying forms of new energy generation principles throughout the 20th century, I am not aware of anyone else claiming potentially large industrial size outputs. No practical model has yet been made due to lack of finances & adequate working area. Yes, I know, you would prefer to have more details but proprietary reasons & security concerns prevent this. Keep in mind however the very early confidence of the atomic bomb theorists. Despite their totally new, hard-to-believe concept at that time, they were eventually vindicated.
(a) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/06/18/21c-nuclear-renaissance/#comment-92286
Can you be more specific please? Which entry are you referring to? Can you include any links to support your criticism?
The above entry was addressed to Greg Meyerson’s comment on 4 Aug 2010
gallopingcamel (7 Aug 2010)
Tom Bond
An experienced independent UK radiation expert does not agree however. Wade Allison is only making a crude attempt to lobby for the nuclear industry, & isn’t considered to be adequately qualified to discuss such important health issues as safe radiation doses. Dr Ian Fairly has had wide experience investigating the effects of low-level radiation & has responded to a previous article from Wade Allison having similar points to the one from Tom Bond (a). Some other points & links have been included elsewhere on BNC for a case not to raise the limits since even background radiation is implicated in some ill-effects (b), so a safe level above background seems unlikely.
Be reminded that released radionuclides from NPP’s do NOT deliver radiation like externally applied gamma rays, x-rays, or cosmic rays. Instead they are more able to enter the body via inhalation & the food chain. Once inside, the radioactive carrier nuclides can have an affinity for sensitive organs & radiate adjacent cells for a long time at very close range, regardless of whether they are only weakly radioactive. The body isn’t getting much relief from the internal emitters for healing to occur. So under these conditions, ill-effects are more likely. The petkau effect particularly explains how cell membranes can be weakened. The problems at Vermont Yankee are more than just a bit of harmless leaking tritium (c – g) causing hysteria, that’s why the vote to close the plant was so predominant.
The extracts from the ‘Yellow Book’ regulations are a significant burden on the modern worker. There are already enough examples known in the nuclear industry showing they cannot effectively maintain strict rules of employee safety & benefit from supposedly better training. Several plant operators at TMI II in 1979, were supposed to be from the elite Admiral Rickover’s navy submarine service. It didn’t seem to make much difference when they were suddenly required to ‘think on their feet’. Wouldn’t it be better to be in an industry free of those restrictions? Abandon nuclear power & you can. It is an engineering disaster anyway. The once-through system only gives an overall efficiency of 1% or less after all the tens of billions of dollars spent on it. Is that supposed to be the best the nuclear barons can do? The 1712 Newcomen steam engine had a thermal efficiency of about the same amount. After approximately 300 years, nuclear power hasn’t come very far in the power generation industry efficiency stakes. There are a lot more people on the planet now, so we must come up with something better & safer.
(a) http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/20/evidence-nuclear-risks-not-overrated
(b) http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/19/radiation-facts-fallacies-and-phobias/#comment-92008
Assorted Tritium Links
(c) http://news.softpedia.com/news/Tritium-Poisoning-Risk-Doubles-72460.shtml
(d) http://healthvermont.gov/enviro/rad/yankee/documents/VYTritiumData_080410.pdf
(e) http://www.nirs.org/factsheets/tritiumbasicinfo.pdf
(f) http://www.clarku.edu/mtafund/prodlib/miamisburg/radioactive_tritium.pdf
(g) http://www.beyondnuclear.org/storage/documents/Tritiumbasicinfofinal.pdf
@Macchiavelli: you write that we must come up with something better and safer? This is prattle. Have you heard of Arrhenius? do you know that C02 is at 382 ppm? .
So what is your opinion of the clash on BNC between Brooks and Jacobsen over the latter’s pro-renewable energy calculations in Scientific American late last year?
As I see it, these are the options: 1. reduce the ca 6 bn people on earth to ca 1 bn by murder/war/virus, as suggested by the captain of Sea Shepherd, the whale-saving NGO. 2. do nothing and stick with coal and natgas and take the AGW consequences. 3. adopt wind and solar and tide and wave and hydro and accept eg blackouts and brownouts and scarce food and water rationed in favour of the Haves and Capital by all-party Governments of National Emergency backed by the military applying martial law. 4. go nuclear.
Peter Lalor (21 Aug 2010)
Yes, I am quite aware of the CO2 problem & accept it as very likely, that’s why I prefer a solution that has an even lower CO2 contribution than nuclear does & without the additional problems. There has been two independent assessments saying nuclear has approximately 1/3 of a gas plant’s CO2 emissions – even higher amounts when lower grade ores are used (a). How can nuclear power have a carbon footprint similar to solar & wind turbines, when the renewables do not require any energy intensive mining & processing for fuel?
Approximately ¾’s of European nuclear plants will be expected to be retired by 2030 (a). How can so many new plants be built safely to replace these as well as extra ones to stay ahead in lowering CO2 emissions, when already the Finland plant is experiencing multiple safety issues delaying completion (b)? This is supposed to be being built by experts.
It may seem like “prattle” to you at the moment, because you appear to be depressed with the apparent options you have provided recently to counter global warming. But there is better news – there certainly have been many free-thinking researchers during the 20th century having discovered subtle principles to generate small amounts of energy using just classical physics, while not releasing any CO2. This is enough to show there is more to be discovered in how to get the best from standard engineering without having to resort to any extreme sources that still have a reasonable carbon footprint. Why can’ you recognise all the difficulties with nuclear power? I have provided several additional references in my posts on BNC to highlight those defects. Many of the early nuclear advocates completely lost track of the practicalities of nuclear power by assuming its problems were going to be solved later on.
Already, conventional nuclear power reactors are looking like a very poor choice while they have an overall efficiency of 1% or less. The new IFR design cannot be made ready overnight to improve that low fuel efficiency.
I am not concerned with the (incomplete) Scientific American example you mentioned as I am satisfied that renewable energy options will be expanded soon rendering that discussion of lesser importance. I have already responded to your several points on 15 July 2010, answering your concern with another possibility for a large scale clean energy source that will have a much lower carbon footprint than nuclear power because it will not depend on any mining, refining or enrichment industry & has no ionising radiation (d).
I definitely see more positive options than your four points. I do appreciate however people may be sceptical about any new energy source claiming more advantages than anything now known, so we will all look forward to a working demonstration of any new breakthrough discovery ASAP.
(a) http://www.newint.org/issue382/facts.htm
(b) http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/safety-threat-to-planned-nuclear-power-stations-1682293.html
(c) http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/IsNuclearTheAnswer.pdf
(d) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/06/18/21c-nuclear-renaissance/#comment-92286
machiavelli: please read the material science on this blog.
especially the stuff on material inputs of wind and solar compared to nuclear. Finrod has some good material on his site on the mining question.
see also the post on double standards or anti nuclear hypocrisy.
why is france’s overall cancer rate less than most other european countries? quokka or someone posted a nice link on these rates.
even if tritium were causing all the french cancer (preposterous of course), france’s electrical system is still the cleanest in europe, along with sweden (46 percent nuclear/46 % hydro). and it’s efficient enough that electricity via nuclear is their main export.
DV and Luke: I’d be interested in hearing your response to M’s tritium business.
Greenpeace recently noted that France was experiencing shutdowns with their nuclear plants to the point where they had to import electricity from elsewhere. but when you compare the imports, it’s a fraction of their electricity exports.
Here is the cancer thing:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_dea_fro_can-health-death-from-cancer
Even if there were a slightly elevated cancer rate near plants in France, this would be massively offset by the lack of people dying from breathing in coal fumes.
Also, this article by Mark Lynas on the KiKK report:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/04/lynas-nuclear-leukaemia
I suggest you read it.
That’s really ironic that Greenpeace are talking about France having to import electricity recently. My gosh, I had no idea France was such a huge importer of electricity! They should shut down their entire programme at once, as its such an obvious waste of money.
@Machiavelli
I think we can both agree that the IPCC is an independent and trusted source on solutions to solving AGW, yes? I suggest you read their latest report:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter4.pdf
Page 283, Carbon Intensity from various sources.
Tom:
thanks for the Lynas article. It nicely sums up what was said here by others, mostly DV8….
g
Huw Jones, on 5 August 2010
It looks like the “don’t honestly care” attitude is shared by many nuclear supporters. Perhaps they would change their mind if they were raising a family of their own near a nuclear plant. The KiKK study was independently confirmed to having showed a clear dose-distance relationship (a). Unfortunately, it looks like the nuclear industry around the world doesn’t care either about accepting the results, preferring to adopt the same denial attitude as the employers of the radium-painters & the early tobacco industry, even after the evidence of toxicity became overwhelming. The nuclear industry seems to justify their indifference below:
Of course if a much safer form of power generation having additional advantages, were to be discovered, then the above nuclear risks can no longer be considered “sustainable & justified”.
If there was an economical effective way to improve the risk-benefit ratio with automobiles even further, then it probably would’ve been done.
Simply because the public is entitled to expect this, since we are supposed to be living in the most powerful knowledge based & creative era in all history. With countless scientists & engineers having graduated from universities all around the world, to help improve our lot, why is the power generation industry been stagnant for so long after hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on nuclear research & particle accelerators? Where is the value for money? The electronics industry is streaking ahead with innovative & functional products, while we’re still stuck with dirty coal & expensive, radioactive nuclear power. At least gas power has advanced a bit.
Furthermore, if nothing else has a 0% risk – then it’s about time our ‘expert’ scientists & engineers started reducing as many pubic risks as possible, because there are far too many now & the cancer rate is too high in most western countries, not to mention other health issues. Reasons for this inaction seems to be economics & a lack of suitable solutions yet. Look at all the 1,000’s of new chemicals & drugs being released amongst the public, many having ingredients that are later shown to have ill-effects. Even the more well known toxic products took far too long to be banned. Lead was identified in about 1912 to have ill-effects on children, yet look how vigorously the industry fought off a ban from including it in petrol & paint products – about 55 years. A similar story with asbestos & mercury. It had been established there is no safe internal dose for mercury, yet small amounts were still deliberately added to some vaccines. There was a recent US study confirming organophosphate pesticides as a likely cause of ADHD in young children after their mother was exposed during pregnancy (c). There are many examples of products having a poor risk-benefit ratio if you look (d, e). Some scientists & politicians are letting the public down badly. If they cannot manage these simpler public health issues adequately, then how can they possibly deal with the more involved nuclear radiation hazards? Existing NPP countries have already got a poor track record in hazard management judging by the known falsehoods & cover-ups. In the case of nuclear power, it is the whole spectrum of disadvantages that makes that technology unacceptable, not just one or two problems (f). A much safer energy base would relieve governments of many headaches.
In Germany, just natural background radiation is considered to cause about 20,000 – 40,000 cancers a year (2002) (b). There is absolutely no question that nuclear power plants release both gaseous & liquid radioactive emissions, being effectively another form of waste. At every stage of the industry, there is some form of waste being generated. We have enough ordinary garbage to deal with without having another expensive & prolific waste producing industry send more into the air, water & landfill. Nuclear engineering cannot contain all the internal radiation inventory indefinitely, due to corroding parts, wearing seals, accidents, undisciplined operators & maintenance practices. The global industry releases “mega-curies” of tritium annually (g). So much for the unbelievable ‘safe’ banana comparison (h).
Not necessarily. Even though ref (i) seems to support H. Jones, it does so only if nuclear workers are not subjected to any mishaps & accidents. But there are already accounts published including examples of mistakes involving larger doses of radiation (j). Additionally, there is the interesting twist where the yearly dose could readily reach 4 mSv or more for a regular high-flyer. Prof Brook suggests there is a “consensus” for 5x background levels being safe or beneficial (k). There are alternative studies however indicating the opposite in pilots (l).
The main difference between NPP radioactive effects & those of general background radiation have already been pointed out (h). Airline staff are NOT exposed to NPP radionuclides that are capable of being ingested internally, but rather to external cosmic radiation that is more readily controlled, therefore being less dangerous in a one sense. NPP workers definitely are subjected to radionuclides of varying levels due to mishaps, failures & accidents. That is why they are allowed a higher limit than the public. But that limit cannot cover more extreme exposures as occurred at TMI in 1979. One or two plant workers received a brief exposure from a 1,000 rad/hr source when they were taking a cooling water sample. Nuclear industry workers definitely get cancer attributed to their employment (m). This is the whole point about NPP’s – they do NOT work under practical guidelines as excepted by the general public. There are technical failures allowing occasionally larger than expected radiation releases. This is why the technology is still not acceptable, having a poor risk-benefit ratio that isn’t compensated well enough by its alleged low carbon footprint.
The cancer figures shown in your link seem to be at odds with other data. Taking the US for example, only about 322 deaths per 100,000 is shown in your link. If you then go to another link (n), giving US state figures it can be seen the minimum is about 389 deaths per 100,000. In any case, this isn’t the best indicator of pollution-related deaths. A localised study done for 1978-98 showed a leukaemia increase of about 6x in the 5-9 age group near the La Hague plant (o). The cancer rate doesn’t have to be high to be noticeable.
The French government is having similar problems with nuclear power as other countries (p, q).
(a) http://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1006/nuclear-safety-1006.cfm
(b) http://www.currentconcerns.ch/index.php?id=706
(c) http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/wellbeing/pesticide-link-to-adhd-20100518-vaqm.html
(d) http://www.smh.com.au/national/chemicals-banned-in-eu-found-in-shampoo-pet-products-20090511-b0kt.html
(e) http://smh.domain.com.au/the-killers-within-how-our-homes-are-making-us-sick-20100429-tv9k.html
(f) http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/IsNuclearTheAnswer.pdf
(g) http://www.nirs.org/factsheets/tritiumbasicinfo.pdf
(h) http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/19/radiation-facts-fallacies-and-phobias/#comment-92008
(i) http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2005/0907-flying_and_radiation_risk.htm
(j) Such as the book ‘Nuclear Witnesses’ Chap 1 L. J. Freeman 1981
(k) ‘Yes’ case for nuclear Power (Why vs Why p29)
(l) http://archopht.ama-assn.org/cgi/reprint/123/8/1102.pdf
(m) http://www.jsi.com/Managed/Docs/Publications/EnviroHealth/Leukemia_FactSheet.pdf
(n) http://www.statemaster.com/graph/hea_can_inc_per_100-cancer-incidence-per-100-000
(o) http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1731936/pdf/v055p00469.pdf
(p) http://www.alternet.org/environment/132852/the_french_nuclear_industry_is_bad_enough_in_france%3B_let‘s_not_expand_it_to_the_u.s./?page=entire
(q) http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/utilities/article6626811.ece
@Machiavelli
Skimming through your post, I noted that you used the Sustainable Development report as a reference. Now I read through all the parts of this series of papers by that organisation, during the time I was ‘on the fence’ about Nuclear, and was trying to make my mind up. The ‘position paper’ you posted the link to says that Nuclear is not the answer, however, the data contained in the bulk of the rest of the report contributed largely to my ‘conversion’.
Take a look at this paper from them, for example:
http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=341
I was quite shocked reading this, considering the SDCs stance on Nuclear power, but after reading it, I’d happily live next to a NPP. Read all of it, but especially chapter 6 – Health Effects ‘ leukaemia’ and adjoining sections.
BTW, if anyone has got a link to the *actual* Kikk report, I’d very much like to read it.
‘Perhaps they would change their mind if they were raising a family of their own near a nuclear plant.’
I’d rather live next to a NPP than a coal plant, Iron or chemical works or even a busy freeway. The insignificant chance of my child or I getting a cancer concerns me far less than the very real risk of asthma or other respiratory disease, or a car accident.
We also need fewer appeals to emotion, such as this one, and more pragmatism i.e. coal is worse than nuclear, but if we have to choose one, its Nuclear.
greg meyerson, on 4 August 2010 at 21.55
I haven’t used any direct evidence from Mangano baby teeth studies yet. Despite no indication of which evidence you’re really referring to above, I will continue with the baby-teeth issue anyway.
I am aware of the rejection of strontium 90 baby-teeth studies by the nuclear industry (a, b, c). This isn’t unusual, as they have rejected virtually all evidence implicating nuclear power of affecting people’s health.
The Sellafield (UK) Director of Health & Safety however, (Dr Roger Berry) DID accept the Gardner Report (1990) recommendations to lower occupational radiation exposure levels due to child leukaemia risks while management attempted to resist it. The industry is following the same procedure pioneered by ‘Big Tobacco’ of looking for any way to ridicule the study or its authors. The independently verified German KiKK child leukaemia study has also been rejected by the same industry, even though it was found to have been adequately done. Meanwhile, ill-effects will continue until more conclusive evidence is found to convince the hard-headed industry. Here is a big chance for ‘Big Nuke’ to locate alternative explanations for the observed ill-effects, but they haven’t come up with anything convincing yet, & still continue to claim it couldn’t be caused by nuclear plant emissions. Many closely involved in the technicalities of that industry know very well that radioactive gas & liquid emissions are hard to contain, yet nuclear power is still falsely portrayed as being benign. The onus should be on the nuclear industry to show why their technology is safe & won’t cause any harm, like the US EPA requiring manufacturers to do likewise before they introduce a new chemical onto the market. The US govt also assured their public that atom bomb tests were safe too, but they were later shown to be wrong. The Mangano teeth studies are still good enough to illustrate a disturbing trend. When combined with alternative methods of fission product fallout assessment, as done by Dr E. Sternglass with the 1st Shippingport reactor showing similar results, then the significance becomes even stronger. Pay particular attention to Dr C. Busby’s comments in ‘Discussion’ paragraphs 5 & 6 about Strontium 90 activity & background radiation differences (i). Strontium 90 activity is surprisingly high (d, p2).
As for “bogus” studies the nuclear industry definitely hasn’t got much to crow about in view of the known examples of fraud, suppression, understatement & misleading claims (Peter Bradford at – (e) & the flawed banana comparison (f) along with the so-called “fair and level playing field” claim (g).
(a) http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2004-01-02-babyteeth_x.htm
(b) http://www.elements.nb.ca/theme/nuclear_energy/sharon/flatt.htm
(c) http://www.unplugsalem.org/radioactive_strontium.htm
(d) http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/krubin/GG425/Lect44.pdf
(e) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/06/18/21c-nuclear-renaissance/#comment-92269
(f) http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/19/radiation-facts-fallacies-and-phobias/
(g) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/07/28/nuclear-power-yes-please-for-cc/
I am not saying radiation is continually pouring from nuclear plants today, even though it could’ve been 30 years ago due to weaker standards. There is already adequate circumstantial evidence for intermittent radioactive gaseous & liquid releases to account for the observed ill-effects in local residents (h, i). The TMI II accident (1979) certainly appears to have released much higher doses than officially acknowledged due to the known measurements taken at the time with hand-held portable monitors & a more detailed analysis of the accident much later (j).
There are adequate studies showing low-level radiation causes measurable harm. I have already included two recently on BNC (k, l). There are more available if you look.
Again, there are no supportive links with your claim. If you are referring to the hormesis issue, my views on that have already been posted on BNC (m, n, o). There are many examples covering decades showing how humans have considerable trouble deciphering some difficult phenomena. It was still generally held amongst scientists up to about 1903-6 that heavier-than-air flight wasn’t possible – a monumental failure of scientific reasoning. The other problem is the ethical & competency issue. We need genuine independent researchers that are not funded by obvious vested interests or compromised by a conflict of interests (see last two ‘Discussion’ paragraphs at – (i).
(h) http://www.ehjournal.net/content/8/1/43
(i) http://www.greenaudit.org/childhood_leukaemia_and_radiation_near_newbury.htm
(j) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/06/18/21c-nuclear-renaissance/#comment-92269
(k) http://www.alfred-koerblein.de/background/downloads/AEOH2006.pdf
(l) http://archopht.ama-assn.org/cgi/reprint/123/8/1102.pdf
(m) http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/19/radiation-facts-fallacies-and-phobias/#comment-76703
(n) http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/19/radiation-facts-fallacies-and-phobias/#comment-81280
(o) http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/19/radiation-facts-fallacies-and-phobias/#comment-92008
(p) http://www.currentconcerns.ch/index.php?id=706
Tom Williams, on 24 August 2010 at 5.21
The SDC link was included in my previous entry (despite their delicate balancing act between the two extreme views on nuclear power) to illustrate they were still effectively not in favour of it:
I would consider nuclear power to have only two real advantages – very large amounts of heat certainly can be obtained for steam turbines with a minimal CO2 release. But it happens to be at the expense of a whole new range of different disadvantages when compared with coal-fired plants. While all the nuke plants are working, there’s a very active simultaneous mining, enrichment & processing program occurring to keep the plants operating, that DOES cause reasonable CO2 releases. Unfortunately, even the large heat advantage can very readily turn into a very serious disadvantage under the right accident conditions. The Emergency Core Cooling System has not been shown to be totally reliable. The ‘Why vs Why’ book is too small & doesn’t adequately cover this very large subject. There are certainly more than five main objections to nuclear power. Hence this BNC site assists with new material.
T. Williams is therefore missing out on useful supplementary material that fills in the blanks. His apparent conversion by some SDC material & the reference to chap 6 of the SDC link about ‘Health Impacts’, is premature as there is much more detailed material available to show why the SDC papers are very generalised & lacking important details readily misleading people new to the subject or who haven’t got the time to delve deeper into it. Likewise with the ‘Yes’ case presented by Prof Brook in the ‘Why vs Why’ book – it is readily countered. I have already included some additional links on some points of safety concerns from key figures in the industry, in previous BNC comments (b, c). Perhaps T. Williams can include more specific points that have persuaded him, for us to see.
I am certainly NOT advocating for anyone to go & live near a coal plant instead. Both types of power plant’s are dangerous. We are supposed to be getting advanced enough to work out how to generate all the energy we need without any obvious ill-effects to the public & be at the same time efficient, safe, reliable, require minimum cooling water & to be cheap. Nuclear & clean coal will not achieve all those requirements. Some people haven’t appreciated the fact, that all NPP’s release radioactive fission products into the environment & are not readily visible, & are being continuously researched by independent investigators wherever possible. So T.W. is prepared to trade large amounts of CO2 for lesser, but more subtly dangerous radionuclide poisons. Well there are many others who do NOT want to make that trade-off, or put up with the incompetent handling of other nuclear engineering drawbacks by governments & industry (d). Already in Sydney Australia, the one small reactor having releases is being handled in the same bumbling manner as other governments in denial (e, f). Notice how the public find out about the releases – by a leaked memo or external monitoring & not by voluntary government announcements. Renewables do not release such waste products while operating & the cancer rate in the western world is too high anyway. There are adequate examples of government cancer registry results in both the USA & UK having been either refused to independent researchers, denied to exist or having been altered. Now for this to occur, there must be a powerful reason to keep the results hidden from the public. Recall what Peter Bradford & Laurie Garret said (c). The US govt A.E.C. went to great lengths to ignore, then conceal the warnings of Dr E. Teller (with the Reactor Safeguards Committee) about major reactor releases during accidents & later, the weakness of the Emergency Core Cooling System during the early US nuclear program. Some US govt staff even resigned over the AEC continuing to ignore ECCS test results (g). Where are these sorts of points covered in the SDC papers? How can anyone have any confidence in that industry? It is in any government’s interest to promote the safest, cheapest & most efficient form of energy reliance possible – it would save them additional expenses in dealing with the multiple disadvantages of the poorer alternatives.
There have been several studies done of German nuclear reactor effects on the population. The links given at (h) may be useful. Perhaps Geoff Russell could confirm if these German study links are similar to the one he requested by post.
(a) http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/presslist.php?id=51
(b) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/06/18/21c-nuclear-renaissance/#comment-82301
(c) http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/06/18/21c-nuclear-renaissance/#comment-92269
(d) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/37260/gaddis-smith/the-cult-of-the-atom-the-secret-papers-of-the-atomic-energy-comm
(e) http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/poison-gas-leak-cover-up/story-e6freuy9-1225911290955
(f) http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/fourth-accident-at-lucas-heights/story-e6frfku9-1111112121856#ixzz0xxxdswWu
(g) http://users.owt.com/smsrpm/nksafe/AEClet.html
(h) http://www.robedwards.com/2008/05/new-evidence-of.html Not all the links are freely accessible
@Macchiavelli: you have adverted several times to German studies. You do not read German.
There is high controversy over the meaning of the Mainz KiK (Kinderkrebs= child cancer) study. Anybody can see this even from Wikpedia.
It is true that the doctor on the nuclear power desk at IPPNW in Germany would agree with you on trend; IPPNW alleges some sort of malfeasance by the German BfS (Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz) in regard of the KiK-study which it had itself commissioned. However, BfS has a website which I advise you read.
On another topic, some EU countries eg France. Germany have set up a notification system for NPPs such that any and all irregularities are reported by the operator so as to build public confidence post-Chernobyl. It thus happens that small mishaps of any sort at all get into the newspapers whereas to my knowledge there is no such statute governing coal-fired plants.