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Fukushima Nuclear Accident – a simple and accurate explanation

Twitter updates: @BraveNewClimate

New 15 MarchFukushima Nuclear Accident – 15 March summary of situation

New 14 MarchUpdates and additional Q&A information here and Technical details here

福島原発事故-簡潔で正確な解説 (version 3):(東京大学エンジニアリング在学生の翻訳) (thanks to Shota Yamanaka for translation)

Other translations: Italian, Spanish, German, 普通话

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Along with reliable sources such as the IAEA and WNN updates, there is an incredible amount of misinformation and hyperbole flying around the internet and media right now about the Fukushima nuclear reactor situation. In the BNC post Discussion Thread – Japanese nuclear reactors and the 11 March 2011 earthquake (and in the many comments that attend the top post), a lot of technical detail  is provided, as well as regular updates. But what about a layman’s summary? How do most people get a grasp on what is happening, why, and what the consequences will be?

Below I reproduce a summary on the situation prepared by Dr Josef Oehmen, a research scientist at MIT, in Boston. He is a PhD Scientist, whose father has extensive experience in Germany’s nuclear industry. This was first posted by Jason Morgan earlier this evening, and he has kindly allowed me to reproduce it here. I think it is very important that this information be widely understood.

Please also take the time to read this: An informed public is key to acceptance of nuclear energy — it was never more relevant than now.

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NOTE: Content Updated 15 March, see: http://mitnse.com/

We will have to cover some fundamentals, before we get into what is going on.

Construction of the Fukushima nuclear power plants

The plants at Fukushima are Boiling Water Reactors (BWR for short). A BWR produces electricity by boiling water, and spinning a a turbine with that steam. The nuclear fuel heats water, the water boils and creates steam, the steam then drives turbines that create the electricity, and the steam is then cooled and condensed back to water, and the water returns to be heated by the nuclear fuel. The reactor operates at about 285 °C.

The nuclear fuel is uranium oxide. Uranium oxide is a ceramic with a very high melting point of about 2800 °C. The fuel is manufactured in pellets (cylinders that are about 1 cm tall and 1 com in diameter). These pellets are then put into a long tube made of Zircaloy (an alloy of zirconium) with a failure temperature of 1200 °C (caused by the auto-catalytic oxidation of water), and sealed tight. This tube is called a fuel rod. These fuel rods are then put together to form assemblies, of which several hundred make up the reactor core.

The solid fuel pellet (a ceramic oxide matrix) is the first barrier that retains many of the radioactive fission products produced by the fission process.  The Zircaloy casing is the second barrier to release that separates the radioactive fuel from the rest of the reactor.

The core is then placed in the pressure vessel. The pressure vessel is a thick steel vessel that operates at a pressure of about 7 MPa (~1000 psi), and is designed to withstand the high pressures that may occur during an accident. The pressure vessel is the third barrier to radioactive material release.

The entire primary loop of the nuclear reactor – the pressure vessel, pipes, and pumps that contain the coolant (water) – are housed in the containment structure.  This structure is the fourth barrier to radioactive material release. The containment structure is a hermetically (air tight) sealed, very thick structure made of steel and concrete. This structure is designed, built and tested for one single purpose: To contain, indefinitely, a complete core meltdown. To aid in this purpose, a large, thick concrete structure is poured around the containment structure and is referred to as the secondary containment.

Both the main containment structure and the secondary containment structure are housed in the reactor building. The reactor building is an outer shell that is supposed to keep the weather out, but nothing in. (this is the part that was damaged in the explosions, but more to that later).

Fundamentals of nuclear reactions

The uranium fuel generates heat by neutron-induced nuclear fission. Uranium atoms are split into lighter atoms (aka fission products). This process generates heat and more neutrons (one of the particles that forms an atom). When one of these neutrons hits another uranium atom, that atom can split, generating more neutrons and so on. That is called the nuclear chain reaction. During normal, full-power operation, the neutron population in a core is stable (remains the same) and the reactor is in a critical state.

It is worth mentioning at this point that the nuclear fuel in a reactor can never cause a nuclear explosion like a nuclear bomb. At Chernobyl, the explosion was caused by excessive pressure buildup, hydrogen explosion and rupture of all structures, propelling molten core material into the environment.  Note that Chernobyl did not have a containment structure as a barrier to the environment. Why that did not and will not happen in Japan, is discussed further below.

In order to control the nuclear chain reaction, the reactor operators use control rods. The control rods are made of boron which absorbs neutrons.  During normal operation in a BWR, the control rods are used to maintain the chain reaction at a critical state. The control rods are also used to shut the reactor down from 100% power to about 7% power (residual or decay heat).

The residual heat is caused from the radioactive decay of fission products.  Radioactive decay is the process by which the fission products  stabilize themselves by emitting energy in the form of small particles (alpha, beta, gamma, neutron, etc.).  There is a multitude of fission products that are produced in a reactor, including cesium and iodine.  This residual heat decreases over time after the reactor is shutdown, and must be removed by cooling systems to prevent the fuel rod from overheating and failing as a barrier to radioactive release. Maintaining enough cooling to remove the decay heat in the reactor is the main challenge in the affected reactors in Japan right now.

It is important to note that many of these fission products decay (produce heat) extremely quickly, and become harmless by the time you spell “R-A-D-I-O-N-U-C-L-I-D-E.”  Others decay more slowly, like some cesium, iodine, strontium, and argon.

What happened at Fukushima (as of March 12, 2011)

The following is a summary of the main facts. The earthquake that hit Japan was several times more powerful than the worst earthquake the nuclear power plant was built for (the Richter scale works logarithmically; for example the difference between an 8.2 and the 8.9 that happened is 5 times, not 0.7).

When the earthquake hit, the nuclear reactors all automatically shutdown. Within seconds after the earthquake started, the control rods had been inserted into the core and the nuclear chain reaction stopped. At this point, the cooling system has to carry away the residual heat, about 7% of the full power heat load under normal operating conditions.

The earthquake destroyed the external power supply of the nuclear reactor. This is a challenging accident for a nuclear power plant, and is referred to as a “loss of offsite power.” The reactor and its backup systems are designed to handle this type of accident by including backup power systems to keep the coolant pumps working. Furthermore, since the power plant had been shut down, it cannot produce any electricity by itself.

For the first hour, the first set of multiple emergency diesel power generators started and provided the electricity that was needed. However, when the tsunami arrived (a very rare and larger than anticipated tsunami) it flooded the diesel generators, causing them to fail.

One of the fundamental tenets of nuclear power plant design is “Defense in Depth.” This approach leads engineers to design a plant that can withstand severe catastrophes, even when several systems fail. A large tsunami that disables all the diesel generators at once is such a scenario, but the tsunami of March 11th was beyond all expectations. To mitigate such an event, engineers designed an extra line of defense by putting everything into the containment structure (see above), that is designed to contain everything inside the structure.

When the diesel generators failed after the tsunami, the reactor operators switched to emergency battery power. The batteries were designed as one of the backup systems to provide power for cooling the core for 8 hours. And they did.

After 8 hours, the batteries ran out, and the residual heat could not be carried away any more.  At this point the plant operators begin to follow emergency procedures that are in place for a “loss of cooling event.” These are procedural steps following the “Depth in Defense” approach. All of this, however shocking it seems to us, is part of the day-to-day training you go through as an operator.

At this time people started talking about the possibility of core meltdown, because if cooling cannot be restored, the core will eventually melt (after several days), and will likely be contained in the containment. Note that the term “meltdown” has a vague definition. “Fuel failure” is a better term to describe the failure of the fuel rod barrier (Zircaloy).  This will occur before the fuel melts, and results from mechanical, chemical, or thermal failures (too much pressure, too much oxidation, or too hot).

However, melting was a long ways from happening and at this time, the primary goal was to manage the core while it was heating up, while ensuring that the fuel cladding remain intact and operational for as long as possible.

Because cooling the core is a priority, the reactor has a number of independent and diverse cooling systems (the reactor water cleanup system, the decay heat removal, the reactor core isolating cooling, the standby liquid cooling system, and others that make up the emergency core cooling system). Which one(s) failed when or did not fail is not clear at this point in time.

Since the operators lost most of their cooling capabilities due to the loss of power, they had to use whatever cooling system capacity they had to get rid of as much heat as possible. But as long as the heat production exceeds the heat removal capacity, the pressure starts increasing as more water boils into steam. The priority now is to maintain the integrity of the fuel rods by keeping the temperature below 1200°C, as well as keeping the pressure at a manageable level. In order to maintain the pressure of the system at a manageable level, steam (and other gases present in the reactor) have to be released from time to time. This process is important during an accident so the pressure does not exceed what the components can handle, so the reactor pressure vessel and the containment structure are designed with several pressure relief valves. So to protect the integrity of the vessel and containment, the operators started venting steam from time to time to control the pressure.

As mentioned previously, steam and other gases are vented.  Some of these gases are radioactive fission products, but they exist in small quantities. Therefore, when the operators started venting the system, some radioactive gases were released to the environment in a controlled manner (ie in small quantities through filters and scrubbers). While some of these gases are radioactive, they did not pose a significant risk to public safety to even the workers on site. This procedure is justified as its consequences are very low, especially when compared to the potential consequences of not venting and risking the containment structures’ integrity.

During this time, mobile generators were transported to the site and some power was restored.  However, more water was boiling off and being vented than was being added to the reactor, thus decreasing the cooling ability of the remaining cooling systems. At some stage during this venting process, the water level may have dropped below the top of the fuel rods.  Regardless, the temperature of some of the fuel rod cladding exceeded 1200 °C, initiating a reaction between the Zircaloy and water. This oxidizing reaction produces hydrogen gas, which mixes with the gas-steam mixture being vented.  This is a known and anticipated process, but the amount of hydrogen gas produced was unknown because the operators didn’t know the exact temperature of the fuel rods or the water level. Since hydrogen gas is extremely combustible, when enough hydrogen gas is mixed with air, it reacts with oxygen. If there is enough hydrogen gas, it will react rapidly, producing an explosion. At some point during the venting process enough hydrogen gas built up inside the containment (there is no air in the containment), so when it was vented to the air an explosion occurred. The explosion took place outside of the containment, but inside and around the reactor building (which has no safety function).  Note that a subsequent and similar explosion occurred at the Unit 3 reactor. This explosion destroyed the top and some of the sides of the reactor building, but did not damage the containment structure or the pressure vessel. While this was not an anticipated event, it happened outside the containment and did not pose a risk to the plant’s safety structures.

Since some of the fuel rod cladding exceeded 1200 °C, some fuel damage occurred. The nuclear material itself was still intact, but the surrounding Zircaloy shell had started failing. At this time, some of the radioactive fission products (cesium, iodine, etc.) started to mix with the water and steam. It was reported that a small amount of cesium and iodine was measured in the steam that was released into the atmosphere.

Since the reactor’s cooling capability was limited, and the water inventory in the reactor was decreasing, engineers decided to inject sea water (mixed with boric acid – a neutron absorber) to ensure the rods remain covered with water.  Although the reactor had been shut down, boric acid is added as a conservative measure to ensure the reactor stays shut down.  Boric acid is also capable of trapping some of the remaining iodine in the water so that it cannot escape, however this trapping is not the primary function of the boric acid.

The water used in the cooling system is purified, demineralized water. The reason to use pure water is to limit the corrosion potential of the coolant water during normal operation. Injecting seawater will require more cleanup after the event, but provided cooling at the time.

This process decreased the temperature of the fuel rods to a non-damaging level. Because the reactor had been shut down a long time ago, the decay heat had decreased to a significantly lower level, so the pressure in the plant stabilized, and venting was no longer required.

***UPDATE – 3/14 8:15 pm EST***

Units 1 and 3 are currently in a stable condition according to TEPCO press releases, but the extent of the fuel damage is unknown.  That said, radiation levels at the Fukushima plant have fallen to 231 micro sieverts (23.1 millirem) as of 2:30 pm March 14th (local time).

***UPDATE – 3/14 10:55 pm EST***

The details about what happened at the Unit 2 reactor are still being determined.  The post on what is happening at the Unit 2 reactor contains more up-to-date information.  Radiation levels have increased, but to what level remains unknown.

By Barry Brook

Barry Brook is an ARC Laureate Fellow and Chair of Environmental Sustainability at the University of Tasmania. He researches global change, ecology and energy.

874 replies on “Fukushima Nuclear Accident – a simple and accurate explanation”

There is a huge difference Bazza, miners know the risks when they go down, while a full scale nuclear disaster will kill or injure innocent people kilometers away

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I am still confused about the sea water injection. First of all, did they flood containment or only injected into the reactor vessel? Wouldn’t flooding the containment have implications if a core meltdown can not be averted by injecting into the vessel (hydrogen/steam)? Also where exaclty does the assertion that “core meltdown has been averted” made in the post stem from? Are we there yet?

Meanwhile, NHK reports that Tepco has informed the government radiation is again above legal limits at Daichi 1, but doesn’t understand what is causing this .

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disdaniel
“If the nuke plants are so bloody safe, then why is half the world on the edge of its seat, praying that nobody (else) dies as a result of “unplanned failures” at Fukushima?”
Why? because the media love to terrify the misinformed public by overstating any perceived problems with nuclear power. Most of the Australian press have been feeding misinformation to the general public BECAUSE IT SELLS PAPERS AND BOOSTS RATINGS. Thank goodness for a rational explanation such as we have been supplied with on this blog. BTW who has died (from radiation – unfortunately someone has been killed by a crushing accident) as a result of the current situation at the power plants? Meanwhile thousands have been killed by the earthquake and tsunami and more in fires which have broken out in oil and gas plants. Let’s get some rational perspective shall we!

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“If the nuke plants are so bloody safe, then why is half the world on the edge of its seat, praying that nobody (else) dies as a result of “unplanned failures” at Fukushima?”

Because the media is churning this into a story when in fact there is really nothing there. There is much more damage in that country that is likely to impact more people that these reactors, but anything nuclear gets the fear factor higher than the possibly that an whole town has been swallowed up, which indeed might be the case.

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disdaniel, people’s fears do not always correspond to reality. And while 4 people have been injured – last I heard – due to the various equipment failures and the explosion at Fukushima, the only fatality, of a crane operator, can reasonably be ascribed to the earthquake rather than the nuclear plant. Especially in the light of the huge numbers of casualties elsewhere which were also due tot he earthquake, and will not be ascribed to inadequate building or poor road protection or failed moorings or a million other possible but faulty causes.

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Thank you for an excellent piece, Professor Brook. The news sources here in the States (CNN, ABC News, etc.) have been nothing short of frightening when reporting on this story, repeating the same video loop of the explosion over and over along with the dramatic music and blaring headlines. They’ve all but shouted “We’re all gonna die!” to we the viewers and it really is quite upsetting. It is both refreshing and comforting to read something that takes a more level-headed, non-sensationalist, education slant to what is going on right now at these plants.

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The name ‘Chernobyl’ is sure getting a run in the world’s media at the moment. It would be good to see a clear analysis of why these reactors have not catastrophically failed in a similar fashion.

Excellent blog and website Barry, and a great antidote to the [ad hom deleted] greens who both want to adhere to the science of AGW but at the same time distort the facts and science of nuclear power [deleted ad hom]

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Hi,

Thanks for the great explanation. You said the plant is safe now and it will be safe, so, why I read a few minutes ago that the radiactivity is increasing again? So what happens if they do nothing now?
Thx.

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RE; R.Hails comment

I too examined the design of the containment building for Mark II and Mark III. Mark II is a little less sturdy than Mark III, but adequate for the design parameters set 40 years ago. Any engineering system needs to be upgraded as factual information becomes available. That is why we have Mark I, II and III. The present hysteria by the media does help our understanding of BWR systems, but only detracts.

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This is very good, but there is a correction required to the seismology bit. “As with the Richter scale, an increase of one step on this [moment magnitude] logarithmic scale corresponds to a 101.5 ≈ 32 times increase in the amount of energy released, …” from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale
so an increase from magnitude 8.2 to magnitude 8.9 is over 20 times as much strain energy relased as the presumed design basis magnitude of 8.2.

However, this still does not give the accelarations at the reactors compared to the design basis, since the distance from the earthquake epicenter matters greatly.

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Ole Nordman, on 14 March 2011 at 9:55 AM — Read about the neutron moderation requirement to sustain a chain reaction in uranium. Then you’ll understand that the main article is substantially correct.

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Thank you, this type of information is hard to be gotten in Japan. If you permit, I want to translate this article into Japanese and show it to my Japanese friends who are not good at English by the Internet.

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Correcting a numerical error in my comment of 14 March 2011 at 10:30 AM, the increase in moment magnitude of 0.7 means 11.3 times as much energy was released as in the design basis. If the earthquake were actually moment magnitude 9.0 [as seems likely], then the increase in moment magnitude of 0.8 means 16 times as muich energy.

Nonetheless, until the distance from epicenter is figured in, these calculations say little about the accelerations experienced by the nuclear power plants versus the design basis accelerations.

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I too had questions about the seawater angle – the article says they’re contaminating it somewhat so I guess that answers it.

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This “feel good” post reminds me of the self-proclaimed petroleum expert who was putting out information during BP’s Gulf of Mexico rig disaster. He claimed it was only releasing a thin sheen of easily dispersible oil, and only in small quantity. We’ll know in a few days or weeks if this is yet more agenda-driven disinformation.

Let us revolt. The power industry is a huge, self-serving and entrenched model. Equivalent investment in point-of-use generation/energy efficiency/conservation solutions would substantially reduce the need for costly overbuilding of peaking capacity.

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“My question to those would be this: what would be a a good enough design earthquake? Magnitude 10? 11? Nothing could be built economically if that is your criteria. That is pure wishful fantasy.”

Jeff in Iowa, that’s a straw man. No one here has suggested any such thing.

That said, the degree of earthquake and tsunami danger at the site may not have been adequately understood at the time that the first few units were designed and constructed. Nevertheless, the plant owner has had decades to study and reconsider these hazards in light of new geologic knowledge, and in response make appropriate adjustments to such things as emergency power supplies.

I stand by my previous post.

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[…] Brave if true. DFAT says Japan is OK but to defer non essential travel. QF says it's OK- and let's be honest, they've proven recently that they don't mind pulling the pin if they have doubts and given the recent loads they'd probably be thrilled to not have to fly a half full jumbo to/from Japan. There is no risk to anyone in Narita. The nuclear risk whilst real for those working at the power plants affected isn't really a big deal for the rest of Japan- unless you're a journo looking for a doomsday story. If you're after a more informed point of view, try here. […]

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Barry, you’re wrong.

There will be a significant release of radioactive isotopes.

Cesium has already been detected outside the reactor, and radiation levels are going up again for unknown reasons; fuel rods from the storage pools may have been blown into the air and dumped randomly on site.

Reactor #3 is not effectively cooled even with the seawater being added. We’ll see whether it explodes and whether the containment vessel works. Radioactive gases have to be vented repeatedly to prevent the containment vessel from failing due to excessive pressure, so either it blows up or stuff is dumped in the air nearby — the hope is that the gasses can be scrubbed before being vented, but who knows?

An informed public is essential to rejecting the chimera of nuclear fission steam engine plants in favor of renewables, which involve much less in the way of toxicity and are frankly cheaper per kilowatt-hour anyway.

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Barry, you’re wrong.

There will be a significant release of radioactive isotopes.

Cesium has already been detected outside the reactor, and radiation levels are going up again for unknown reasons; fuel rods from the storage pools may have been blown into the air and dumped randomly on site.

Reactor #3 is not effectively cooled even with the seawater being added. We’ll see whether it explodes and whether the containment vessel works. Radioactive gases have to be vented repeatedly to prevent the containment vessel from failing due to excessive pressure, so either it blows up or stuff is dumped in the air nearby — the hope is that the gasses can be scrubbed before being vented, but who knows?

All information from the IAEA.

An informed public is essential to rejecting the chimera of nuclear fission steam engine plants in favor of renewables, which involve much less in the way of toxicity and are frankly cheaper per kilowatt-hour anyway.
[ad hom deleted]

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Thanks fot the information.

I stopped watching news channels when they showed the Tsunami originating just above Fiji (obviously closer to the US).

I wish there was a short version. Then more people would read it.

Thanks again.

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Nathanael, on 14 March 2011 at 12:19 PM — This thread has a highly specific purpose. Please stick to the topic here and take more general opinions or observations to Open Thread 9. Thank you.

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Outstanding work, and highly reassuring.

It would be very helpful for lay readers like me if you might offer easily understood radiation exposure comparisons.

e.g – as a result of radionuclide emissions, persons within 1km of the reactor received exposure equivalent to a n hours airline flight at 35,000 ft.

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Dear god, they were hooking up fire pumps to the thing

“the Japanese have apparently tried used fire-fighting equipment”

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Why were the back-up gen sets located in an area that could flood? Should they have not been located high up or in a sealed area.? What did the think would happen after a big quake? A BIG wave perhaps? Sounds like a flaw to me!

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Hi Barry. What does “design basis accident” mean? I think who ever designed the back-up systems should be held accountable for such a common sence mistake. (Bechtel, Parsons, B&R perhaps?) Nuke is the future and this just about killed it!

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I’m in Japan and asked earlier if the analysis of the problems at Fukushima apply to just one reactor or to all the reactors at the facility. Perhaps, I missed the reply.

It would be extremely helpful to have a frank assessment of the risks of each individual reactor, if possible. I’m persuaded that the particular reactor in question is in no danger of exploding. I’m not all convinced that the threats from the other reactors have been explained clearly, at least here.

I appreciate the effort made here and remain pro-nuclear. Facts about the risks we face from other reactors are essential. Looking forward to an informed, well-supported update.

Cheers!

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Jerry, on 14 March 2011 at 1:15 PM — A World Nuclear News report stated that the backup generators were protected against a 6.5 m tsunami, but that in the event it was at least 7 m of surge.

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It is unclear to me why control room levels of radiation are so high. They are ~ 1000 mSv according to most reports. The US Air Force and Navy are now reporting radiation in an airstream in the Pacific Ocean near the accident. The NYTimes reports releases will continue for many months. Finally, I am a geneticist, not a physicist, and I am aware that many workers (~160 by most current counts) have been significantly exposed. My profession became expert at judging the effects of Radiation on people only after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Jim Neel (James V. Neel), now deceased, whom I knew, went to Japan to assess the effects of radiation several times after the war and eventually wrote a report for the UN about it. That report did not make these kinds of situations appear very safe. The long term consequences of radiation exposure are not pretty. Herman Mueller got a Nobel Prize in great part because he noted that radiation shows zero-order kinetics in its ability to cause mutation. No dose is low enough so that it is completely safe.

I’m sorry the plugs didn’t fit.

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Good overview.
Some comments:
1. Metals which make up the primary loop piping, valves etc. can contain metals (such as Cobalt) which is often used as an alloy metal to control corrosion, and does have a more significant halflife than seconds (about 5 years). These particles can become entrained in a steam rupture etc, and pose a ingestion risk.
2. Iodine is often cited due to the fact it is a very abundant fission byproduct and that it is particular nasty because the human body likes to use it in the thyroid. If their is a lot of radioactive Iodine floating around it and your body squirrels it away, that could be bad. That is why they hand out iodine tablets so you saturate your system with good iodine.
3. The most important take away is that just because one little bit of radiation makes it way out of the reactor, it is not necessarily dangerous. Scale must always be considered. For example, we all heard about the Tsunami heading for Los Angeles after this quake – when the scale of that Tsunami was realized (i.e. about one inch in height), it hardly warranted the name Tsunami. In this case particulate counts, and radiation monitoring need to be done to properly assess the magnitude of the situation. I believe, due to the fact that Nuclear Power and Nuclear Bomb share first names, their tends to be a much greater fear of Nuclear Power than is warranted, and as a result cleaner better ways of using and employing this technology are not chosen. I am not saying it is without risk, but the engineering risks are manageable – often more manageable than basic things, like the levies of New Orleans. For some reason as a society we decide to accept certain risk as ‘just the way things are’, and allow ourselves no tolerance for risks in other areas. Often these areas are where the consequence is not clearly understood due to the complexity of the science or an unwillingness for us to keep an open mind earns certain areas like Nuclear Power the ‘boogyman’ label. When someone says that ‘radiation has leaked’ or 22 Japanese have been contaminated, those statements have no meaning without scale. Once the official reports and studies come out, and the scale is understood, I am sure the big media rhetoric will die down with no apologies. The anti-nuclear zealots will claim that the reports were misleading and filled with lies. And nuclear power will receive another ‘false perception’ based black eye, and because of the afore mentioned boogyman effect it will be hard pressed to redeem itself even if it is one of the most viable and greenest forms of energy currently widely available globally.

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Thanks Barry,
I qualified as a Navy Nuclear Engineer, and worked on secondary side maintenance for commercial nucs for several years.

Your article presents a pretty good layman summary of both the design and casualty situations for a BWR. While engineers can always fault you on some technical details, the thrust of your article is quite correct, in particlar that the risk to people ought to remain low, Japanese society is typically opaque on issues that might embarass, and that the utility will absorb a large loss on damaged equipment.

Best Regards,

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“the backup generators were protected against a 6.5m tsunami”

…and the contingency for 7m appears to be;

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Looks like the author is lacking basic math skill too: An 8.9 earthquake is 5 times, not 7 times stronger than 8.2 on the logarithmic scale …

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Informative but clearly written by pro nuclear lobby – how is this guy supposed to make accurate claims about the situation when he is sitting in some office on the other side of the world???

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In a practical sense, it sorta doesn’t matter what has precisely happened at Fukushima, the upshot is that this event is an unmitigated nightmare for the nuclear industry’ – just as it appeared on the verge of a renaissance.

For nuclear devotees the aftermath will be a bitter pill to swallow, because unravelling what happened, and how close the nation came to disaster, will now preoccupy scientists and engineers for years to come.

The first 30 years of nuclear power took place in the aftermath of the WW11 bombings of Japanese cities and then the protracted cold war, when nuclear armaments kept the clock hovering around one minute to midnight…. and then the accidents at 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl locked in people’s ingrained dread.

25 years of breathing space and the climate change agenda finally brought nuclear power back onto political and commercial agendas and the tide in public opinion had only just started to shift favourably towards nuclear power in the past 5 years. Now Fukushima is to become a household word.

Whether fear of nuclear power is justified or not, the industry is back to square one again. Well, almost. The majority of people out there aren’t nuclear scientists, suspicion of the dangers of nuclear power stem from a history that was not imaginary, it was very real.

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@Heather Miller

While you are correct, i.e.
(10 ** 8.9) / (10 ** 8.2) = 5.01187234, there is no need to snipe at the author for a simple calculation error. This does not detract from the central argument in any way as far as I can see.

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These figures ceratainly put things in perspective don’t they?

Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh)
Coal – world average 161 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)
Coal – China 278
Coal – USA 15
Oil 36 (36% of world energy)
Natural Gas 4 (21% of world energy)
Biofuel/Biomass 12
Peat 12
Solar (rooftop) 0.44 (less than 0.1% of world energy)
Wind 0.15 (less than 1% of world energy)
Hydro 0.10 (europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)
Hydro – world including Banqiao) 1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)
Nuclear 0.04 (5.9% of world energy)

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A simple and unrealistic explanation…
Anything can happen, there is already 2 explosions plus 2 more nuclear plants with problems, meanwhile radiation is been leaked to the atmosphere going to the air, earth and oceans…
This articles could be good at explaning how nuclear planrs work but nothing valuable regarding what can happen in accidents… because no one knows…

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Nathanael, what you wrote is incoherent compared to Barry’s carefully detailed and informative piece. We certainly want an informed public, but what are we to make of statements like:

‘There will be a significant release of radioactive isotopes.’

Our hospitals are full of radioactive isotopes. ‘Significant’? Good grief the sentence is meaningless, like legal jargon, ‘The party of the first part shall be known as the party of the first part’.

If you’ve got something to say, you need to learn how to express it.

BTW, you seem to be making a prediction, however ambiguously. So if you are wrong, will you recant?

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“On the other hand, actual nuclear professionals who work with this stuff every day and, therefore, have some respect for the limitations of the technology, have been alarmed by the steadily deteriorating situation from the beginning.”

Rubbish. Completely contrary to the facts. actual nuclear professionals are at pains to explain that the situation is under control.

[ad hom deleted]

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Robert Green
Do you understand the laws of libel?
Barry Brook receives no remuneration from anywhere or anyone associated with the nuclear industry. All of the work on this blog is done in his own free time, using his own money, because he cares and because it matters. You can easily check that out for yourself (and Barry has already answered this criticism elsewhere).His only motivation is to find an answer to the developing climate change catastrophe and thereby prevent species extinction and civilization breakdown. A rogue always accuses others of his own motives because his character cannot see that anyone else would act differently. I strongly suggest you apologise to Professor Brook immediately.

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Could you keep your pro/con nuclear power comments out of this post for now.

For all those in Japan (including myself), all we care about is our next move…and in order to be able to make it we need clear un-bias opinions.

You can argue about it all you want when the situation is under control again.

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Death rates associated with various energy technologies do rate very positively for nuclear power, as reported by Ms Perps.

In fact, if risk of reactor accident was the only sword hanging over the industry’s head then nuclear power could easily vie in popularity with other technologies (e.g. the motor car) that have an accident and death rate many hundreds of times higher.

The problem for the industry partly stems from the fact that the invisible nature of radiation tends to spook people (falling off a roof whilst installing solar panels is, by comparison, a very obvious and direct way to risk being maimed or killed).

Oddly there is an inordinate focus on the reactor safety issue, I guess because nuclear accidents are rather like planes falling out of the sky, in that they make for good dramatics. Per kilometre travelled, air travel is safer than car driving, bike riding or even walking, but the prospect of a plane crashing tends to spook people much more.

What sets the nuclear industry completely apart is that it has to contend with an array of other perceived high-level risks in parallel – that is, the historic connection between the nuclear fuel cycle and worldwide nuclear arms proliferation and the seemingly eternal problem of waste disposal. With all that other appeasement baggage to contend with the last thing the nuclear industry would want right now is a reactor meltdown, even if a partial one.

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Thanks for the article, it has cleared up how the system works, and the redundant backup systems. I am still going to keep a close eye on the information coming out. Your assessment is too clean, it is based on probabilities. No one has actually seen the entire damage yet. If I have learned anything in this life its “if something can go wrong it probably will”. It is not over yet, until it is I will remain vigilant. respectfully jack

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The figures from the report I have linked to “Energy Death Rates per KWhr” are gathered from reputable sources such as WHO and have been published throughout the literature. Attribution is given in the article.[ad hom deleted]

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@ Ms Perps

File that one under sample bias and Fun-With-Stats-and-Dick-and-Jane.

To everyone else, the comments are HILARIOUS and worth a look. The author smacks of desperation for his headline; “Rooftop Solar More Dangerous Than Chernobyl”

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Jason
You say:
“Interesting article but your conclusions have just been proven wrong as a second hydrogen explosion just killed 6 workers at the plant.”

What is the source of your information? This is what the authorities say:

“Operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. confirmed that the 11:01 a.m. blast did not damage the container of the No. 3 reactor, allaying concerns that the explosion may have caused a massive release of radioactive substance.

TEPCO said three workers, including its employees, were injured by the blast. All of them suffered bruises.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77627.htm

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Great article, rather irritated at the people who didn’t appreciate the innuendos about Iran or the Soviet. I am a nuclear operator for the Navy and find that people ignorance with Nuclear Power is rather astounding. You have summarized this “tragic nuclear accident” rather poetically. Thank you

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Esquilax – stats with Dick and Jane – I don’t think so. They come from a highly regarded report done for the EU.
The summary:
“The risk comparisons are based on the results of the ExternE project (Ref. 1), which was
financed by the EU Commission and carried out by research organisations in most EU states
and in Norway. ExternE is one of the most extensive and scientifically most soundly based
investigations within the field.”

Here is the full scientific paper:

Click to access 15%20-%20Polenp~1.pdf

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In discussing intermediate radio-active elements the author states “The challenge is that after inserting the rods and stopping the chain reaction, the core still keeps producing heat. “The uranium “stopped” the chain reaction.”

This is last sentence is less than optimally placed. It reads as though (the) uranium moderated itself. Assuredly not the case. Perhaps it should read “neutron-inspired uranium-decay ceased.”

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