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The following post, by Dan Meneley, was originally presented at the 17th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference Cancun 2010, and is reproduced here with Dan’s blessing (I plan to buy him dinner, as thanks, when I visit Toronto in June). Its contents are highly topical in the context of the current situation in Japan and the debate that […]
Filed under: Emissions, Future, Nuclear, Policy, Scenarios | 162 Comments »
In this post, I develop a hypothetical multi-energy-supply scenario for global low-emissions electricity in ~2060. The assumed energy mix is 75 % nuclear fission and 25 % non-nuclear sources, with fossil fuel use virtually eliminated except where it is used with carbon capture and storage. The % annual growth rate (GR) of energy supplied assumes […]
Filed under: Nuclear, Renewables, Scenarios | 29 Comments »
In a previous post on BraveNewClimate – TCASE #The energy demand equation to 2050 — I estimated a mid-century global primary energy demand of ~1000 EJ (see here for definitions). But it may as well have been 2060; the actual date that this global demand will be reached is obviously uncertain, but will likely occur between 2040 […]
Filed under: Scenarios | 29 Comments »
The nuclear scenario I describe here requires around 10,000 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2060, to replace most of our current fossil fuel use. (For further justification of this 10 TW target, read this TCASE post.) My next step is to look critically as some of the critical underpinning assumptions — uranium supply and build […]
Filed under: Emissions, Nuclear, Scenarios | 185 Comments »
In the previous SNE2060 post, I considered four possible scenarios for expansion of ‘Generation III’ thermal nuclear power reactors for the period 2010 to 2060. I attached no probability to them, but obviously not all are equally plausible. For instance, I strongly doubt that the TR2 scenario, which followed the WNA high scenario to 2030 […]
Filed under: Nuclear, Scenarios | 28 Comments »
Read this for the context. The first set of scenarios looks at the possible build out of Gen II+/III/III+ thermal reactors (i.e., current and advanced water-moderated reactors: PWRs, BWRs, HWRs etc.), over a 50 year time frame (2011 to 2060). The focus of this exercise is not to predict which reactor type(s) will predominate. In the next 1-2 decades, I […]
Filed under: Nuclear, Scenarios | 73 Comments »
Back in April 2010, I wrote a post “Nuclear century outlook – crystal ball gazing by the WNA”. It looked at an interesting study, undertaken by the World Nuclear Association, that made some low/high bound projections for electricity production between 2008 and 2100, including nuclear, new renewables, fossil fuels with CCS, etc. (see figure to […]
Filed under: Nuclear, Scenarios | 42 Comments »
I’ve talked recently on BNC about various recent energy plans. which seek to replace fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives. On the whole, I’ve been left dissatisfied. For instance, there was the Scientific American article ‘A path to sustainable energy by 2030‘ (technology = renewables only, critiqued by me here) and the UK Royal Academy of […]
Filed under: Emissions, Nuclear, Scenarios | 460 Comments »
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