Seminar reminder and Discussion Thread.
Friday 5 September: What future climate change scenarios are possible?
“Scientists can’t forecast what my local weather will do this weekend, how can they know what climates around the world will do in 50 years?” The earth is a complex system, as are the computer models scientists use to understand the effects of greenhouse gases in that system. Those models are attacked for being unreliable. They are said to exaggerate the effects of CO2 or neglect the robustness and history of the earth’s climate.
In this third of the Climate Q&A series, Prof Brook takes a close look at the models–how they work, what they can tell us and why it’s important we take them seriously.
Some of the sceptical positions to be covered include:
- Models are unreliable
- If you can’t predict next week’s weather, how can you predict it in 50 years time?
- Climate sensitivity is low
- The IPCC scenarios are not realistic
- Models are unverified and ‘tuned’ to fit to past temperature change
- Models ignore… [insert the thing they supposedly left out]
- Recent flat temperatures disprove climate models
Guest Speaker: Dr Peter Hayman, Climate Applications, SARDI, Department of Primary Industries and Resources of South Australia, South Australian Government.
Peter is Principal Scientist, Climate Applications, with the South Australian Research and Development Institute. Prior to this he was an agricultural adviser and researcher with NSW Department of Primary Industries. Since the early 1990s he has worked with farmers and their advisers to apply the advances of climate science to improve the management of climate risk.
Time and place:
5.30 -7.00 pm, Friday 5 September 2008
Lecture Theatre 102, Napier Building, University of Adelaide (North Terrace Campus, City)
Any questions or comments, ask away!